There are two tropical disturbances currently being monitored for development – Invest 93L over the Western Caribbean Sea and Invest 92E over the Eastern Pacific. Both have the opportunity to develop through the weekend.

Invest 93L still could become a tropical cyclone, likely to help boost a nor’easter early next week

The broad area of low pressure over the Western Caribbean – Invest 93L – has not become much better organized today. As of 00:00 UTC Friday, Invest 93L was centered near 15.3°N 82.8°W, and was nearly stationary. Maximum sustained winds were 25 knots (30 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1007 mb. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives 93L a 40 percent chance of development, both within 48 hours and five days. 93L still has about 36-48 hours to develop into a tropical depression or storm before a cold front approaches and upper-level winds become unfavorable. Wind shear is expected to be moderate during the next couple of days, around 15-20 knots, with very warm sea surface temperatures and a moist mid-level atmosphere. While the overall structure of 93L has not really changed much today, there has been an increase in convective activity west of the center during the past couple of hours. It is unclear if this increase in convection will persist, so development into a tropical cyclone does not appear imminent at this time. On Sunday, 93L is expected to be absorbed by a cold front, and energy from 93L is likely to help fuel a strengthening extratropical cyclone which could bring heavy rains and strong winds to New England early next week. If 93L does become a tropical storm, it will be named Philippe.

92E over Eastern Pacific more likely to develop than 93L

An elongated area of low pressure is producing an area of disturbed weather over the far Eastern Pacific. This system, designated Invest 92E, is given a 70 percent chance of development within 48 hours and five days by the NHC. As of 00:00 UTC Friday, 92E was centered near 10.4°N 88.5°W, and was moving slowly west-northwestward. Maximum sustained winds were 25 knots (30 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1007 mb. 92E is gradually becoming better organized, and is likely to become a tropical depression or storm by Saturday. 92E is likely to bring heavy rains to central America through the weekend, even if development does not occur. It is likely that 92E’s presence has been partially responsible for limiting Invest 93L in the Caribbean from developing more quickly. If 92E does become a tropical storm, it will be named Selma.

I will be back with another post tomorrow.