Late Friday morning, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued their first Special Tropical Weather Outlook (STWO) of 2018 on the trough near the Bahamas. The system unofficially kicks off the start of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, which officially begins in just four weeks on June 1.

NHC gives this system a near zero percent chance of development, both within 48 hours and five days. It has not been given an “Invest” designation. The trough is expected to move westward, moving inland into Southeastern Florida Saturday. The cold-core mid-upper level trough is not expected to have enough time to transition into a subtropical or tropical cyclone.  Sea surface temperatures are marginal, about 27°C (80.6°F). Wind shear has dropped since yesterday, but is still quite hostile for significant development. Although no development is expected, the primary threat with this system is heavy rains for the Bahamas and South Florida. The 18z Thursday and 00z Friday GFS model runs predicted that the system could acquire more subtropical or tropical characteristics off the coast of the Carolinas by the middle of next week, but the 12z run from today has backed off on this possibility. No other models have predicted this scenario, so this appears unlikely as of now. In the extremely unlikely event that a subtropical or tropical storm forms, the first name on the Atlantic naming list is Alberto.

Possible Eastern Pacific tropical development next week?

Although the trough near the Bahamas is not expected to become a tropical cyclone, the Eastern Pacific may have a better chance at seeing tropical cyclogenesis by the middle to end of next week. The 12z Friday GFS, UKMET, and CMC models all predicted that a tropical storm would form over the Eastern Pacific far from land by next Wednesday. The 12z Friday ECMWF model did not predict this system to develop into a tropical cyclone during that time frame. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has not yet mentioned the possibility of Eastern Pacific development. The East Pacific does not typically see tropical development this early. Just last year, though, Tropical Storm Adrian formed near the coast of Mexico on May 9, making it the earliest forming tropical cyclone in the Eastern Pacific proper. The 2018 Pacific hurricane season does not officially begin until May 15. The first name on the Eastern Pacific naming list is Aletta.

I will continue to watch the tropics during the weekend and will be back with another post tomorrow.