CYCLONIC FURY

Invest 90E over the Eastern Pacific has struggled to develop persistent deep convection near its elongated center of circulation, and chances of it developing into a tropical cyclone are diminishing. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gave it a 50 percent chance of development, both within 48 hours and five days in a Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued at 10:25 AM PDT (1:25 PM EDT). This is down from the 70 percent chance NHC gave 90E early Wednesday morning. Because 90E is headed for a less favorable environment, I would place development chances lower, at 20 percent, and even this may be generous.

As of 18:00 UTC Wednesday, Invest 90E was centered near 11.0°N 124.3°W and was moving to the northwest. Maximum sustained winds were 25 knots (30 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1009 mbar. Though 90E was very near tropical depression status on Tuesday evening, convection has significantly decreased today. All that remains of 90E is scattered convection around an elongated swirl.

Conditions for 90E are only going to get more hostile from here. On Thursday, wind shear is expected to rise to over 20 knots, while sea surface temperatures cool to below 27°C (80.6°F). 90E will also be moving into a drier and more stable environment after that time. Unsurprisingly, global models have backed off development with 90E considerably, indicating that its window of development is closing. It appears as if Tropical Storm Adrian of last year will remain the earliest named storm in the eastern Pacific proper for now.

I will be back with a new blog by Friday on the tropics. There are some indications on the GFS model that a tropical disturbance may form over the Western Caribbean next week, but it is highly likely that this is a false alarm with the model as the ECMWF model shows no development.