The non-tropical area of low pressure located over the Gulf of Mexico has failed to organize, and tropical or subtropical development appears quite unlikely at this time. In a 8:00 a.m. EDT Tuesday Special Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) lowered 48-hour and five-day development chances to 10%. It appears as if the dry environment and fairly cool sea surface temperatures. The low pressure system remains poorly organized, with minimal convective activity. None of the reliable 12z Wednesday global models develop this system into a subtropical or tropical cyclone, and this is my last post about this system unless unexpected development occurs.

In other news, today (May 15) marks the official start of the 2018 Eastern Pacific hurricane season. The names that will be used during the season are listed here. This basin averages 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes in a season. Tropical Depression One-E formed before the start of the season, but the basin is still awaiting its first named storm (Aletta). The average first tropical storm for the basin forms around June 10, with the first hurricane forming on average on June 26. I will release a seasonal forecast for this basin by the end of May.

In addition, the NHC Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) has analyzed the first official tropical wave of the season – located over the central tropical Atlantic. This wave is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone, but it is a reminder that hurricane season is getting close. It is typical to see the first official tropical wave some time in mid-May.

Today is also the one year anniversary of the official launch of Cyclonic Fury! Now that the Pacific hurricane season has begun, I will begin releasing Cyclonic Fury blogs at least once a week, and nearly every day when systems are active. Since the tropics appear to be quiet in the short term, I will be back with another blog post by Friday. However, global models are suggesting that a Central American Gyre (CAG) may form, and we may need to watch for tropical development in the Western Caribbean and Eastern Pacific in the 7-10 day time frame.