CYCLONIC FURY

A weak, sheared tropical cyclone could still form over the Gulf of Mexico by late this week. The 12z Sunday ECMWF, CMC and ICON models all predicted the development of a tropical storm over the central Gulf of Mexico by next Saturday. The GFS model is much farther east than the other models, predicting an elongated low pressure system will track to the northeast over the Florida peninsula into the western Atlantic. Given the high-shear environment, it would not be surprising if the GFS solution was correct, because strong southwesterly shear could push any developing system to the northeast, favoring a track into the Florida peninsula. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has not yet mentioned this system in a Special Tropical Weather Outlook, and potential impacts remain uncertain. Regardless of development, heavy rains are likely, but the potential track is highly uncertain with a wide range of model solutions. I will be back with another post tomorrow.