CYCLONIC FURY

Subtropical Storm Alberto has only strengthened slightly since yesterday, and is expected to make landfall in the western Florida Panhandle on Monday afternoon. Due to dry air entrainment and moderate southeasterly wind shear, Alberto has been unable to significantly strengthen, and the storm has not transitioned into a tropical cyclone. Some slight strengthening is possible tonight before landfall if Alberto is able to fight off the dry air, but it appears as if time is running out for significant strengthening.

As of 4:00 p.m. CDT (5:00 p.m. EDT) Sunday, Subtropical Storm Alberto was centered near 28.0°N 85.2°W, and was moving north-northwest at about 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 45 knots (50 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 994 mb. After an increase in organization this morning, dry air has become entrained into Alberto’s circulation, which will likely limit much additional intensification. A reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate Alberto later this evening to provide a better estimate on its intensity and structure. Alberto could still transition into a tropical storm before landfall, however. There is also a distinct possibility that Alberto never completes the transition and remains a subtropical cyclone. Models have come into better agreement on Alberto’s landfall location today, and the center should move inland into the western Florida Panhandle on Monday afternoon. Heavy rainfall will remain the primary threat with Alberto, but the dry air that has become entrained into the storm may reduce rainfall totals.

I will be back with another post on Alberto by tomorrow evening.