All pre-season forecasts for the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season have been released, and they remain mixed, ranging from a very quiet season (TSR) to a very active season (NCSU). Cyclonic Fury’s forecast is somewhat in between the two extremes, calling for near to slightly below average activity. The forecasts, with the exception of NCSU, do agree on something: the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season will very likely be less active than last year.

In April, North Carolina State University (NCSU) released their forecast, predicting a very active season with 14-18 named storms, 7-11 hurricanes and 3-5 major hurricanes. On May 7, WeatherBELL released its forecast, calling for 9-13 named storms, 5-7 hurricanes and 1-3 major hurricanes. The Weather Channel released its outlook May 18, predicting 12 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. On May 22, I released my outlook, predicting 10-14 named storms, 4-7 hurricanes and 2-3 major hurricanes with an ACE of about 90 units.

Recently, the official forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) was released May 24. Their forecast called for 10-16 named storms, 5-9 hurricanes, and 1-4 major hurricanes.  The UK Meteorological Office released their outlook May 25, predicting 11 named storms and 6 hurricanes to form between June and November. Britain-based Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) was much lower with their forecast on May 30, predicting only 9 named storms, 4 hurricanes, 1 major hurricane and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of only 43 units (the lowest since 2013). Colorado State University released their forecast May 31, predicting 14 named storms would develop (including Subtropical Storm Alberto), along with 6 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes and an ACE of 90 units. This was reduced from their April outlook, in which they predicted 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.

Agency	Date	Named storms	Hurricanes	Major hurricanes
North Carolina State University	April 16, 2018	14-18	7-11	3-5
WeatherBELL	May 7, 2018	9-13	5-7	1-3
The Weather Channel	May 18, 2018	12	5	2
Cyclonic Fury*	May 22, 2018	10-14	4-7	2-3
NOAA	May 24, 2018	10-16	5-9	1-4
UK Meteorological Office	May 25, 2018	11**	6	N/A
Tropical Storm Risk	May 30, 2018	9	4	1
Colorado State University	May 31, 2018	14	6	2

* Cyclonic Fury is not an expert organization and the forecast is my thoughts alone. ** Does not include Subtropical Storm Alberto, which formed in May

Even though the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season will almost certainly be less active than 2017, it should be stressed that it only takes one storm to have a significant impact. I will be back with another post tomorrow on a disturbance that is likely to become the first storm of the 2018 Eastern Pacific hurricane season.