After being only a tropical depression 24 hours ago, Hurricane Bud has rapidly developed over the far eastern Pacific and is expected to continue intensifying for the next 24-36 hours or so. To the west of Bud, Aletta continues to hang on as a tropical storm.

As of 4:00 p.m. CDT (5:00 p.m. EDT) Sunday, Hurricane Bud was centered near 15.3°N 104.2°W, and was moving northwestward at 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 65 knots (75 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 987 mb. Bud has intensified 35 knots (40 mph) within the last 24 hours, being only a tropical depression this time yesterday. Bud has developed an eye feature, and the environment appears very conducive for intensification during the next day or so. With vertical wind shear less than 10 kt, mid-level relative humidity values above 80 percent, and sea surface temperatures above 28°C (82.4°F), rapid intensification is possible during the next 24 hours. After that time, intensification should slow or stop, since Bud is expected to move into cooler waters and a drier environment. Since Bud has already intensified faster than expected, it is likely that Bud could be a major hurricane by Monday afternoon. Bud is a very large storm, and it is possible that parts of the Pacific coast of Mexico may see tropical storm force winds in rainbands. As a result, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Pacific coast of Mexico from Mazanillo to Cabo Corrientes. The current National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast predicts Bud to possibly make landfall along the southern tip of Baja California Sur as a weak to moderate tropical storm by early Friday. The model guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, but the exact track of Bud’s center is uncertain and it may or may not make landfall.

To the west of Bud, once-powerful Aletta is hanging on as a weak tropical storm. As of 2:00 p.m. PDT (5:00 p.m. EDT) Sunday, Tropical Storm Aletta was centered near 16.6°N 115.7°W, and was moving westward at about 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 40 knots (45 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1002 mb. Aletta is currently passing close to the sparsely-populated Clarion Island, which reported winds near tropical storm force. The forecast for Aletta has not changed much since yesterday, and Aletta should become a post-tropical remnant low by Monday night as it traverses cooler waters in a dry, stable environment.

The Atlantic basin remains quiet today, and the NHC still does not anticipate any development within the next five days. The 12z Sunday GFS and CMC models continued to predict development of the tropical storm in the western Gulf of Mexico by next weekend, but the 12z Sunday ECMWF and UKMET models remained persistent with showing little to no development. While it appears likely that a surface trough will develop over the western Gulf of Mexico and could bring heavy rainfall to Texas, chances of tropical development appear low at this time.The next name on the Atlantic naming list is Beryl. In the eastern Pacific, global models suggest that we will likely see a lull in activity after Bud dissipates.