CYCLONIC FURY

Now a tropical depression, once-powerful Bud is barely holding on to its status as a tropical cyclone over the narrow Gulf of California. To the east of Bud, Tropical Depression Four-E has strengthened into Tropical Storm Carlotta, and is expected to make landfall in the Mexican state of Guerrero or Oaxaca early Saturday morning. In the Atlantic, a sharp surface trough has developed near the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula, and is expected to merge with the remnants of former Invest 91L and bring heavy rainfall to Texas late this weekend and early next weekend.

TD Bud likely to become a remnant low tonight

Now a tropical depression, all that remains of Bud is a swirl of low clouds with some scattered convection to the north of the center. As of 9:00 a.m. MDT (11:00 a.m. EDT) Friday, Tropical Depression Bud was centered near 25.3°N 110.0°W, and was moving northward at about 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 30 knots (35 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1002 mb. Bud should lose its status as a tropical cyclone within the next 12 hours, possibly before the center moves inland into western mainland Mexico. Though Bud is likely to lose its status as a tropical cyclone later today, Bud’s remnants are expected to produce heavy rainfall in the Mexican state of Sonora as well as the Southwestern United States. Flash flooding is possible in these areas.

TD Four-E strengthens into TS Carlotta, a heavy rainfall threat to Southern Mexico

Tropical Depression Four-E over the far eastern Pacific has strengthened into Tropical Storm Carlotta. As of 1:00 p.m. CDT (2:00 p.m. EDT) Friday, Tropical Storm Carlotta was centered near 15.8°N 99.7°W, and was moving north-northeastward at about 3 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 35 knots (40 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1006 mb. Carlotta has become slightly better organized this morning, and is likely to intensify a little more prior to landfall. Only modest intensification is expected since the center is expected to move inland on Saturday morning. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Tecpan de Galeana to Laguanas de Chacahua. The primary threat with Carlotta is heavy rainfall, and torrential rainfall is already occurring over Guerrero and Oaxaca.

New disturbance to watch over the NW Caribbean, unlikely to develop but heavy rainfall expected for Texas

A surface trough has developed over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea, and has a low chance to gradually organize as it moves into the Northwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) added this system to their Tropical Weather Outlook this afternoon and now gives this disturbance a 10 percent chance of development, both within 48 hours and five days. This trough is expected to emerge into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday and absorb the remnants of former Invest 91L. By Sunday, this trough is expected to be nearing the coast of Texas. Environmental conditions are marginally favorable for development, with sea surface temperatures a warm 28-29°C (82.4-84.2°F) and wind shear about 15-20 knots. Though global models are currently not expecting development, it is not out of the question this disturbance develops a low-level circulation before moving inland into Texas on Sunday or Monday. Regardless of development, the primary threat with this disturbance is heavy rainfall.