Tropical Storm Carlotta over the Eastern Pacific has moved slower than anticipated and remains offshore southern Mexico. In the Atlantic, a trough is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity near the Yucatan Peninsula, and has a low chance to develop into a tropical cyclone by Monday as it approaches the Texas coast.

Carlotta remains offshore Mexico but likely to move inland tonight or early tomorrow

As of 1:00 p.m. CDT (2:00 p.m. EDT) Saturday, Tropical Storm Carlotta was centered near 16.0°N 99.3°W, and was moving northward at about 2 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 45 knots (50 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1000 mb. After a period of strengthening early this morning, Carlotta has changed little in organization, and is likely near its peak intensity. Since Carlotta has moved more south and east than expected, the tropical storm has not made landfall yet. Carlotta should move inland into southern Mexico late tonight or early tomorrow, but the track forecast for Carlotta remains a bit uncertain. A Tropical Storm Warning is currently in effect for the coast of Mexico from Acapulco to Lagunas de Chacahua. The primary threat with Carlotta is heavy rainfall and  mudslides, though some tropical storm force winds are possible. Carlotta should dissipate quickly after landfall due to the mountainous terrain of southern Mexico.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance not very likely to develop, but heavy rainfall expected for the western Gulf coast

An area of disturbed weather producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms north of the Yucatan Peninsula is associated with a surface trough. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives this system a 20 percent chance of development, both within 48 hours and five days. However, this system does not possess a well-defined surface circulation, and the intensity of the showers and thunderstorms has begun to decrease a bit during the past few hours. The showers and thunderstorms should continue to decrease later today and perhaps even dissipate, but there is a short window for this system to develop into a weak tropical cyclone late Sunday as it approaches the coast of Texas. Global models continue to show little to no development of this system. Upper-level winds are not particularly conducive for development, but it is possible a weak low-level circulation may close off with this disturbance as it nears Texas. Even though significant tropical development is not likely, heavy rainfall is expected for northern Mexico, coastal Texas and southwestern Louisiana on Sunday. If this disturbance becomes a tropical storm, it would be named Beryl.

I will be back with another post tomorrow.