After a brief period of organization Saturday night in which an eyewall was visible in radar imagery, Tropical Storm Carlotta has weakened significantly this morning. The tiny tropical storm may not even make landfall in Mexico before it degenerates into a remnant low. In the Atlantic, the area of disturbed weather Gulf of Mexico remains poorly organized, and a low-level circulation does not exist. After Carlotta and this Gulf of Mexico disturbance, there should be a lull in activity over the eastern Pacific and Atlantic as a Suppressed Kelvin Wave passes through the region.

Erratic Carlotta losing organization, could dissipate soon

Due to its close proximity to land, Tropical Storm Carlotta has quickly lost organization this morning. As of 11:00 a.m. EDT (10:00 a.m. CDT) Sunday, Tropical Storm Carlotta was centered near 17.2°N 101.3°W, and was moving northwestward at about 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 35 knots (40 mph) with an estimated minimum pressure of 1005 mb. Last night, Carlotta strengthened quickly to a peak intensity with maximum sustained winds of 55 knots (65 mph), based on an eye visible in radar imagery. Since that time, Carlotta has quickly weakened and lost organization. The tropical storm is very small, and it is hard to tell where the low-level center is, if it even exists. Although the official forecast still predicts that Carlotta will make landfall in the Mexican state of Guerrero as a tropical depression, it is possible that Carlotta could lose its status as a tropical cyclone prior to making landfall. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Tecpan De Galeana to Lazaro Cardenas. It is possible that this warning could be discontinued if Carlotta weakens to a tropical depression or degenerates into a remnant low prior to landfall. The primary threat with Carlotta, even if it loses its status as a tropical cyclone before making landfall, is heavy rainfall which can lead to flash floods and mudslides.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance unlikely to develop, but heavy rainfall expected for northern Mexico and Texas

A surface trough over the Northwestern Gulf of Mexico remains very poorly organized, and is unlikely to develop into a tropical cyclone prior to moving inland into Southern Texas. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gave this system a 20 percent chance of development within both 48 hours and five days in their 8:00 a.m. EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. I would put these chances a bit lower, at 10%, based on the poor organization of the system and unfavorable environment. Surface observations continue to indicate that the system remains poorly organized, with no signs of a surface circulation and surface pressures remain fairly high at about 1011 mb. The system appears to be running out of time to develop into a tropical depression or storm. It is interesting to note that the 00z Sunday ECMWF and UKMET models both developed this system into a tropical storm just inland near the Texas-Mexico border. This scenario seems highly improbable due to the mountainous terrain of the region. The GFS solution seems more reasonable, with the system moving inland with no development. Even though development into a tropical cyclone appears unlikely, heavy rainfall is expected for Northern Mexico, coastal Texas, and southwestern Louisiana. Amounts of up to 10 inches are possible, especially near the Texas-Mexico border along the Gulf coast. Some isolated higher amounts are not out of the question. Some gusty winds are also possible, but should remain below tropical storm force.

I will be back with another blog tomorrow.