The 2018 Pacific hurricane season continues to have a hot start. While Tropical Storm Daniel has begun to weaken and should dissipate by Wednesday, two more named storms – Emilia and Fabio – are likely to develop over the eastern Pacific by the end of June. In the Atlantic, there are no disturbances that the National Hurricane Center (NHC) are monitoring for development, but some global models are hinting at the possibility of development off the United States east coast late this week.

As of 8:00 a.m. PDT (11:00 a.m. EDT) Monday, Tropical Storm Daniel was centered near 19.0°N 117.8°W, and was moving northwestward at about 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 35 knots (40 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1005 mb. Daniel is maintaining an area of deep convection to the west of its exposed center, but the storm has already crossed the 26°C (78.8°F) isotherm and the deep convection should begin to decrease tonight. Daniel should become a remnant low by Wednesday morning as it tracks west-northwestward into cooler waters. Daniel is no threat to land.

To the east of Daniel is Invest 96E, which is expected to absorb the remnants of Invest 94E (which is no longer expected to develop). As of 18:00 UTC Monday, Invest 96E was centered near 8.5°N 98.0°W. Maximum sustained winds were 25 knots (30 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1009 mb. NHC gives this system a 40 percent chance of development within 48 hours, and a 90 percent chance within five days. The ECMWF, GFS and CMC models all develop this system. 96E should pose no threat to land.

To the east of 96E, another eastern Pacific tropical cyclone is likely to form. The NHC gives this system a near zero percent chance of development within 48 hours, and a 70 percent chance within five days. Like 96E, this system has strong model support and is likely to be the stronger of the two, and is not expected to pose a threat to land.

In the Atlantic, the 12z ECMWF, CMC and ICON models all developed a well-defined low pressure area off the coast of North Carolina by late this week. The GFS model shows no development. The big question is if this system will acquire sufficient tropical characteristics to be designated as a tropical or subtropical cyclone. Systems like this are common in developing El Niño years, and at least a weak El Niño event is becoming increasing likely for later this year. Although the NHC has not mentioned this system in their Tropical Weather Outlook, I give this system a 30% chance of developing into a tropical or subtropical cyclone during the next five days off the east coast of the U.S. The next name on the Atlantic naming list is Beryl.

I will be back with another post tomorrow.