Today is the first day of July, and the eastern Pacific basin remains active. While Tropical Depression Emilia is barely hanging on to tropical depression status, Tropical Storm Fabio, which formed yesterday to the east of Emilia, is expected to rapidly intensify into a major hurricane. Neither storm poses a threat to land, but Fabio could reach Category 4 status over the open Pacific waters in about two days.

As of 2:00 p.m. PDT (5:00 p.m. EDT) Sunday, Tropical Depression Emilia was centered near 19.7°N 124.0°W, and was moving west-northwestward at about 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 25 knots (30 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1007 mb. Emilia is moving over sea surface temperatures below 25°C (77°F), and deep convection is likely to dissipate with the cyclone later tonight or early Monday. At that time, Emilia will lose its status as a tropical cyclone.

As of 3:00 p.m. MDT (5:00 p.m. EDT), Tropical Storm Fabio was centered near 12.4°N 108.4°W, and was moving west-northwestward at about 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 55 knots (65 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 996 mb. Fabio is quickly becoming better organized, and was a tropical depression only 18 hours ago. Fabio is currently located in a very favorable environment, with wind shear expected to remain below 10 knots for the next several days, along with sea surface temperatures currently above 28°C (82.4°F). Fabio is also expected to remain in a fairly moist environment for the next 48 hours or so, with mid-level relative humidity values near 70 percent. This environment is highly conducive to rapid intensification, and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) currently predicts Fabio to peak as a 115-knot (130 mph) Category 4 hurricane on Tuesday. I would not be surprised to see Fabio a little stronger than this, based on the SHIPS model forecasting Fabio to reach Category 5 status. Fortunately, Fabio poses no threat to any land areas. By Wednesday, Fabio will be moving over cooler water and the storm is likely to begin weakening at that time.

The Atlantic basin remains quiet at the moment – though the strongest tropical wave of the season so far has exited the coast of Africa and models are showing some potential weak development later this week, and I will continue to monitor this wave. The wave has not been mentioned in the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook. I will be back with another post tomorrow.