Tropical Storm Fabio over the eastern Pacific has intensified into the third hurricane of the 2018 Pacific hurricane season today. An eye-like feature has recently become visible in satellite imagery, and Fabio could still become a major hurricane before reaching cooler waters later this week. Fabio is no threat to land. In the Atlantic, a surface trough is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the Northern Gulf of Mexico, but development into a tropical cyclone appears unlikely at this time.

As of 3:00 p.m. MDT (5:00 p.m. EDT) Monday, Hurricane Fabio was centered near 13.8°N 111.8°W, and was moving west-northwestward at about 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 75 knots (85 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 980 mb. Fabio has not intensified as quickly as anticipated, likely as a result of occasional dry air intrusions. Fabio is expected to remain in a warm-water, low-shear environment for the next 36 hours or so, and some additional intensification is likely. Fabio could reach major hurricane strength on Tuesday before the hurricane reaches cooler waters on Wednesday and weakening begins. Fabio is likely to degenerate into a remnant low by the weekend, and poses no threat to land.

In the Atlantic, we are currently watching a surface trough producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms near the coast of the western Florida Panhandle. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives this system a 10 percent chance of development, both within 48 hours and five days. This trough is expected to move westward inland into eastern Louisiana on Tuesday morning with minimal development. Global models continue to show no significant development with this system. Although tropical cyclone development appears unlikely, locally heavy rainfall is possible along the northern Gulf Coast for the next couple days.

I will be back with an update on the tropics tomorrow.