The tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic has acquired a small, closed circulation, and has maintained persistent deep convection for some time now. As a result, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued advisories on Tropical Depression Two. The depression may strengthen into Tropical Storm Beryl during the next day or two before encountering strong wind shear as it approaches the Lesser Antilles. In the eastern Pacific, Fabio is quickly weakening and is now a tropical storm.

Tropical Depression Two forms over the central tropical Atlantic

As of 11:00 a.m. EDT Thursday, Tropical Depression Two was centered near 10.2°N 41.4°W, and was moving westward at about 16 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 30 knots (35 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1009 mb. The tropical depression is very small, but a recent SCAT-SAT pass has confirmed the presence of a tiny but closed low-level circulation. The environment is only marginally favorable for intensification, but the depression could become a tropical storm within the next day or two. Wind shear is expected to remain low for the next 48 hours or so, but cool sea surface temperatures of about 26°C (78.8°F) will likely prevent any significant strengthening. Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is also present to the north of the depression. By Sunday, wind shear is expected to quickly increase to more than 20 knots as Two approaches the Lesser Antilles, and this should cause the depression to dissipate by Monday, if not sooner. It is possible that the remnants of Two could bring rainfall to the Lesser Antilles early next week, but it is unlikely that the system will still be a tropical cyclone by that point. If the depression intensifies into a tropical storm, it would be named Beryl. It should be noted that in most cases early development in the deep Atlantic tropics is a sign of an active season, but I do not expect this to be the case this year due to cooler than normal tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures and the possibility of a weak to moderate El Niño event.

Fabio weakens to a tropical storm, lull in Eastern Pacific afterward

As of 8:00 a.m. PDT (11:00 a.m. EDT) Thursday, Tropical Storm Fabio was centered near 20.2°N 125.4°W, and was moving northwestward at about 17 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 55 knots (65 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 992 mb. Fabio should continue to weaken over the next couple days as it moves over cooler waters, and Fabio is likely to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low on Friday night or Saturday. Fabio continues to pose no threat to land. After Fabio, models continue to show no new eastern Pacific storms for the immediate future, and NHC expects no additional development during the next five days.

Low chance of a tropical depression to form southwest of Bermuda

A surface trough located southwest of Bermuda is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. NHC gives this disturbance a 30 percent chance of development within 48 hours, and a 40 percent chance within five days. I would put development chances lower, at only 20 percent, due to the lack of model support aside from the UKMET.

I will be back with another post tomorrow.