The unusually active July in the Atlantic basin continues. While Tropical Storm Beryl has degenerated into a tropical wave, it could regenerate east of the Bahamas by late next week. In addition to Beryl is recently named Tropical Storm Chris, which should intensify into a hurricane by Tuesday as it moves little, and then eventually northeastward along the Gulf Stream. If Chris intensifies into a hurricane as expected, the Atlantic will have two hurricanes form in the month of July for the first time since 2008.

As of 5:00 p.m. EDT Sunday, the remnants of Beryl were centered near 15.2°N 60.3°W, and were moving west-northwestward at about 26 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 40 knots (45 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1007 mb. A combination of scatterometer and reconnaissance aircraft data has confirmed that Beryl has degenerated into an open tropical wave. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is maintaining advisories since a Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Dominica. Although Beryl no longer possesses a closed circulation, the impacts will be the same: heavy rainfall and gusty winds to tropical storm force are possible along parts of the Lesser Antilles. Strong wind shear and the fast movement should not allow Beryl to regenerate during the next few days. However, some re-development of Beryl is possible by Thursday if the remnants of Beryl are not severely disrupted by Hispaniola. However, proximity to Chris, likely to be a hurricane by then, may suppress redevelopment.

The third named storm of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season – Chris – was named early Sunday morning, and has gradually strengthened today. As of 5:00 p.m. EDT Sunday, Tropical Storm Chris was centered near 32.7°N 74.6°W, and was nearly stationary. Maximum sustained winds were 45 knots (50 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1008 mb. Chris has formed over a month before the average date of the formation of the third named Atlantic storm, which is August 13. For the next 72 hours, Chris is expected to be over warm water and in an environment of light to moderate shear. This favors strengthening, and most reliable models bring Chris to hurricane strength by Tuesday. It is possible Chris could reach Category 2 or even Category 3 strength by Wednesday if it intensifies more than anticipated. Chris is expected to remain offshore the east coast of the United States, and no watches or warnings are in effect at this time. However, it is possible that Chris or its remnants could cause rough surf and rip currents along the western Atlantic coast this week. Chris could also pose a threat to Nova Scotia or Newfoundland, but it is unclear if the cyclone will still be tropical by that point.

I will be back with another post tomorrow.