CYCLONIC FURY

Category 2 Hurricane Chris, which reached its peak intensity early this morning with maximum sustained winds of 90 knots (105 mph) and a minimum pressure of 970 mb, has begun to weaken today as it moves northeastward away from the United States. Chris is now the strongest Atlantic hurricane to form in July since Dolly in 2008. In the western Atlantic, the remnants of Hurricane Beryl remain poorly organized, but they could regenerate west of Bermuda late this week or this weekend.

As of 11:00 a.m. EDT Wednesday, Hurricane Chris was centered near 36.4°N 67.8°W, and was moving northeastward at about 22 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 85 knots (100 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 974 mb. Chris probably reached its peak intensity early this morning, and a weakening trend is likely beginning. In only about 12 hours, sea surface temperatures are expected to quickly drop below 26°C (78.8°F), and wind shear is expected to increase to over 25 knots. This should cause extratropical transition to begin very soon, and Chris should transition into an extratropical cyclone by late tomorrow. The center of Chris is likely to pass over or just east of the eastern coast of Newfoundland, but it will likely be extratropical by that time. Chris could bring heavy rainfall and storm force winds to eastern Newfoundland. After that time, extratropical Chris should continue moving east-northeastward over the open north Atlantic and could approach Iceland by Sunday.

Beryl may regenerate west of Bermuda by Saturday

The remnants of Hurricane Beryl over the western Atlantic, while currently poorly organized, could gradually reorganize over the next few days while they move generally north. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives Beryl’s remnants a 20 percent chance of development within 48 hours, and a 50 percent chance within five days. The 12z GFS, UKMET, ECMWF and CMC models all showed at least some slight redevelopment with Beryl. If Beryl regenerates into a tropical depression or storm, it likely won’t last too long, since it will likely quickly encounter higher shear and cooler waters as it tracks north. The remnants of Beryl should remain well offshore from the United States.

I will be back with another post tomorrow.