Overall, the tropics are quiet today in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific. There are, however, two low-chance disturbances in the eastern and central Pacific, but neither poses any threat to land.

The first of the two disturbances, Invest 91C over the central Pacific, has become less organized since yesterday. As of 18:00 UTC Tuesday, Invest 91C was located near 14.2°N 146.9°W, and was moving generally westward. Maximum sustained winds were 25 knots (30 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1007 mb. Upper-level winds are expected to remain strong over the next several days, while sea surface temperatures are marginal. Significant development of 91C is unlikely while it moves westward. None of the reliable global models develop 91C into a tropical cyclone. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives 91C a 20 percent chance of development within both 48 hours and five days, but I would put the chances even lower at 10 percent. In the unlikely event that 91C develops into a tropical storm, it would be named Walaka.

Well to the east of 91C is another area of disturbed weather which has a low chance of development as it moves westward to west-northwestward. The NHC gives this system, an area of low pressure, a 20 percent chance of development within both 48 hours and five days. Like 91C, upper-level winds are unfavorable for significant development. In addition, models are not aggressive on development with this system. If this system develops into a tropical storm, it would be named Gilma.

I will be back with another post by Thursday.