There continues to be no new tropical cyclones active in either the Atlantic or Eastern Pacific basins. However, there are three areas of disturbed weather currently being monitored for development in the Eastern Pacific and one in the Central Pacific.

The easternmost disturbance, which has not yet formed, is expected to develop into a low pressure system by early next week. The UKMET and ECMWF models both develop this system into a tropical depression by late Wednesday as it moves westward to west-northwestward, while the ECMWF model develops it into a hurricane. It should remain well away from any land areas should tropical cyclone development occur. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives this system a near zero percent chance of development within 48 hours, but a 40 percent chance within five days.

The next disturbance is located near 10°N 113°W and remains poorly organized. The NHC gives this system a 10 percent chance of development within 48 hours, but a 60 percent chance within five days. In my opinion, the five-day development chances on this system are likely closer to 30%, since none of the top 3 models for tropical cyclogenesis: the ECMWF, GFS and UKMET, predict development. Like the other disturbances, this one does not pose a threat to land.

The next disturbance, designated Invest 90E, has become a little better organized during the past several hours, but strong upper-level winds are likely to limit significant development. As of 18:00 UTC Saturday, Invest 90E was located near 13.4°N 134.3°W, and was moving generally west-northwestward. Maximum sustained winds were 25 knots (30 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1008 mb. Due to the strong upper-level winds, models do not show much development with 90E. The NHC gives 90E a 20 percent chance of development, both within 48 hours and five days.

The westernmost disturbance, located in the central Pacific, has changed little over the last day or so. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) gives this system a 20 percent chance of development, both within 48 hours and five days. This disturbance is located near 13°N 147°W, about 750 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. The GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET models do not develop this system into a tropical cyclone. The disturbance should remain well south of the Hawaiian Islands.

It is a bit surprising that the eastern Pacific has not yet produced a new tropical cyclone this July, which is normally one of the most active months in that basin. The next name on the eastern Pacific naming list is Gilma, while the next name on the central Pacific naming list is Walaka.

I will be back with another post by Monday.