CYCLONIC FURY

Two areas of low pressure over the eastern Pacific basin are becoming better organized today and are close to developing into tropical depressions. The eastern Pacific has not yet seen a new tropical cyclone form this July, which is extremely unusual. This is somewhat surprising for what was anticipated to be a very active or even possibly hyperactive season by experts, since July is normally one of the most active months in the eastern Pacific. Behind 91E and 92E, another area of low pressure may develop over the eastern Pacific by early next week and gradually develop as it moves westward to west-northwestward.

91E very close to tropical depression status

An area of low pressure over the eastern Pacific (Invest 91E) is producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms near the center. As of 18:00 UTC Thursday, Invest 91E was located near 13.2°N 122.7°W, and was moving generally west-northwestward. Maximum sustained winds were officially listed at 25 knots (30 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1010 mb. However, a recent ASCAT pass indicates that maximum sustained winds may be 30 knots or perhaps slightly higher. The best track for Invest 91E now lists it as 08E, and advisories will likely be initiated on Tropical Depression Eight-E later today. Environmental conditions are somewhat conducive for development, with wind shear expected to remain less than 20 knots and sea surface temperatures above 27°C (80.6°F) for the next 48 hours or so. After that time, wind shear is expected to increase and sea surface temperatures are expected to gradually cool, making environmental conditions less conducive for development. The 12z Thursday GFS, ECMWF and UKMET models all predicted some slight development with 91E. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives 91E a 70 percent chance of development within 48 hours, and an 80 percent chance within five days. 91E poses no imminent threat to land, though its remnants may pass near or just south of the Hawaiian Islands by the middle to late part of next week.

92E likely to develop despite strong upper-level winds

Although upper-level winds are strong, Invest 92E has become better organized today and could become a tropical depression over the next day or two. As of 18:00 UTC Thursday, Invest 92E was located near 11.0°N 135.0°W, and was moving generally westward. Maximum sustained winds were 25 knots (30 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1008 mb. Although 92E is expected to remain over warm water for the next several days, wind shear is expected to remain moderate to strong as the system emerges into the central Pacific basin. The 12z Thursday UKMET model develops 92E, while the 12z Thursday ECMWF and GFS models show little development. 92E should not pose a threat to any land areas, and is expected to remain well south of the Hawaiian Islands. The NHC gives 92E a 70 percent chance of development, both within 48 hours and five days.

The next two names on the eastern Pacific naming list are Gilma and Hector, while the next name on the central Pacific naming list is Walaka. As is typical for July, the Atlantic basin remains quiet, with no global models predicting any tropical cyclone development over the next 5-10 days.