The strange 2018 Atlantic hurricane season continues. Subtropical Storm Ernesto has formed over the Northern Atlantic, the fifth named storm of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season. Ernesto is the fourth named storm this season to have subtropical characteristics at some point during its life. Ernesto has developed more than two weeks before the average fifth named storm in the Atlantic basin (August 31). Now that we are in mid-August, we are entering the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. The active eastern Pacific hurricane season continues, with the formation of Tropical Storm Lane, which is likely to intensify into a powerful hurricane as it tracks west-northwestward towards the Central Pacific.

SS Ernesto forms over the central North Atlantic, slight intensification likely

As of 11:00 a.m. EDT Wednesday, Subtropical Storm Ernesto was centered near 38.1°N 46.0°W, and was moving northward at about 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 35 knots (40 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1008 mb. Ernesto, previously Invest 98L yesterday, developed a well-defined circulation and became a subtropical depression early this morning. It has since strengthened into a subtropical storm. A little more strengthening is likely as Ernesto moves northward to northeastward, though Ernesto’s broad size and subtropical nature should limit significant intensification. Although wind shear is fairly low (less than 15 knots), Ernesto only has about 18-24 hours before it moves over sea surface temperatures less than 26°C (78.8°F). Though not currently forecast by the National Hurricane Center (NHC), it is possible Ernesto could transition into a tropical storm if it is able to contract its wind field and develop deep convection near the center. Ernesto is expected to become post-tropical by Friday morning, and Ernesto’s extratropical remnants could bring heavy rainfall and strong winds to the British Isles by Sunday.

Lane forms over the eastern Pacific, intensification expected

The eastern Pacific’s twelfth named storm of the season – Tropical Storm Lane – was named Wednesday morning. As of 8:00 a.m. PDT (11:00 a.m. EDT) Wednesday, Tropical Storm Lane was centered near 10.7°N 123.6°W, and was moving westward at about 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 35 knots (40 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1006 mb. Lane is already becoming better organized, with a Central Dense Overcast (CDO) developing and the low-level center is located under the CDO. Due to low wind shear, warm waters and a fairly moist environment, intensification is anticipated. If current trends continue, Lane could be a hurricane as soon as tomorrow night. Global models are in good agreement that Lane will move generally westward for the next day or so, followed by a slight turn to the west-northwest. Since environmental conditions are quite conducive for intensification, Lane is likely to become a major hurricane by this weekend, and I think Lane has a good chance to peak at Category 4 strength. Lane is no imminent threat to land; however, it is too soon to determine if Lane will impact the Hawaiian Islands.

Aside from Ernesto and Lane, there are no other systems currently being monitored for tropical or subtropical cyclogenesis over the Atlantic and eastern Pacific basins. In the central Pacific, an area of disturbed weather located southwest of the Hawaiian Islands is given a near zero percent chance of development within 48 hours and a 10 percent chance within five days. Significant development of this system appears unlikely due to strong upper-level winds.

I will be back with another post on Ernesto and Lane tomorrow.