Tropical Storm Ernesto is holding on as a tropical storm over the Northeastern Atlantic despite cold sea surface temperatures, but should transition into a post-tropical cyclone tonight. In the eastern Pacific, Lane has intensified into a Category 2 hurricane, and some additional intensification is likely over the next day or two as it heads for the Central Pacific.

As of 5:00 p.m. EDT Friday, Tropical Storm Ernesto was centered near 49.1°N 29.8°W, and was moving northeastward at about 31 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 40 knots (45 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1003 mb. Ernesto is barely maintaining its status as a tropical storm since deep convection is persisting near its center, but Ernesto should lose tropical characteristics late tonight or early Saturday. Ernesto is moving over sea surface temperatures cooler than 16°C (60.8°F), but cool upper-level temperatures have allowed deep convection to persist. Wind shear is also expected to increase to above 30 knots by Saturday morning, and this should cause Ernesto to transition into a post-tropical cyclone. Ernesto’s post-tropical remnants are likely to spread locally heavy rains and possibly winds near gale force to the British Isles.

As of 5:00 p.m. EDT (2:00 p.m. PDT) Friday, Hurricane Lane was centered near 11.5°N 134.1°W, and was moving westward at about 16 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 95 knots (110 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 973 mb. Lane is currently rapidly intensifying, and is likely to become a Category 3 major hurricane tonight. A large eye is beginning to clear out this afternoon, and the eye should continue to become better defined this evening. Lane is expected to emerge into the Central Pacific basin tomorrow, and once Lane moves west of 140°W, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center will take over advisories on the storm. Lane could reach Category 4 intensity at some point over the next few days.  Once Lane becomes a strong hurricane, it will be prone to fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall replacement cycles. During the next three days or so, Lane is expected to be over marginally warm sea surface temperatures of about 27°C (80.4°F) and in a low shear environment (less than 10 knots). After that time, wind shear could increase somewhat, which will likely slow the strengthening rate or cause a slow weakening trend. Lane should continue moving westward to west-northwestward over the coming days, and will likely remain south of the Hawaiian Islands like Hurricane Hector earlier this month. However, it is still too soon to rule out impacts to the Islands.

In the tropical Atlantic, former Invest 99L has failed to develop, and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) now gives this system a near zero percent chance of tropical cyclone formation. None of the reliable global models develop 99L, and environmental conditions are becoming less favorable for tropical cyclogenesis as the tropical wave nears the eastern Caribbean. In the eastern Pacific, another tropical wave located about 1000 miles south-southwest of the Baja California peninsula could gradually develop into a tropical cyclone as it moves westward to west-northwestward. The NHC gives this system a near zero percent chance of development within 48 hours, and a 20 percent chance within five days.