Although global models were in good agreement that Hurricane Lane would most likely pass south of the Hawaiian Islands, over the past day or so models have trended much closer to the state, and direct impacts are looking increasing likely. Hurricane Lane is now a very dangerous high-end Category 4 hurricane and could intensify into a Category 5 hurricane later today. If Lane intensifies into a Category 5 hurricane, it will be the first Category 5 hurricane in the Central Pacific basin since Ioke in 2006.

As of 11:00 a.m. HST (5:00 p.m. EDT) Tuesday, Hurricane Lane was centered near 14.3°N 153.2°W, and was moving west-northwestward at about 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 135 knots (155 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 941 mb. This intensity is based on an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft which is currently investigating the hurricane. It is possible that Lane could be upgraded to a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale at any time, since the aircraft recently recorded a surface wind measurement of 140 knots (160 mph) from the SFMR instrument.

The future track of Lane remains uncertain, though direct impacts to the Hawaiian Islands are becoming increasingly likely. A Hurricane Watch is currently in effect for Hawaii and Maui counties. Watches and/or warnings could be issued for the other islands by tomorrow. The 12z Tuesday GFS model run predicts that Lane will make landfall in the western Big Island of Hawaii as a Category 1 hurricane early Friday, while the ECMWF is much farther west and predicts that Lane will pass very close to the island of Kauai as a sheared, weakening tropical storm but just miss landfall. The model spread remains large, and interests throughout the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of Lane closely and have a hurricane plan ready. Hawaii is not accustomed to frequent tropical cyclone landfalls. Even if Lane weakens significantly before approaching the Hawaiian Islands or the center does not make landfall, tropical storm force winds and heavy rainfall is still possible.

Much like the track, the intensity forecast for Lane is challenging. During the next 48 hours, Lane will be over sea surface temperatures warmer than 27°C (80.6°F), wind shear is expected to be less than 10 knots, and mid-level relative humidity values are expected to be above 60 percent. This could allow Lane to maintain its intensity or perhaps strengthen a bit more, though fluctuations in intensity are likely due to Eyewall Replacement Cycles. After that time, environmental conditions are expected to become quite hostile for further strengthening, as wind shear is expected to quickly increase to near 30 knots in about 72 hours while Lane enters a drier, more stable air mass. Rapid weakening may occur as Lane approaches the Hawaiian Islands, though Lane has exceeded intensity forecasts so far and it is unclear how much the storm will weaken.

I will be back with an update on Lane tomorrow, as this could be a serious weather event for the Hawaiian Islands.