CYCLONIC FURY

Despite increasing wind shear, Hurricane Lane is only slowly weakening and is still a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Lane is expected to make its closest approach to the islands tomorrow, though it is possible that the hurricane does not even make landfall. Even if Lane does not make landfall, heavy rainfall and strong winds are likely.

Lane still a Category 4 hurricane but expected to weaken as it passes west of Hawaii

As of 11:00 a.m. HST (5:00 p.m. EDT) Thursday, Hurricane Lane was centered near 17.3°N 157.5°W, and was moving northwestward at about 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 115 knots (130 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 949 mb. The eye of Hurricane Lane recently passed near a NOAA Buoy, which confirmed that Lane is still a very powerful hurricane.  The satellite presentation of Lane isn’t as impressive as it was yesterday, and the eye is no longer very distinct. Wind shear around Lane is already increasing, and is expected to quickly increase to above 30 knots in about 36-48 hours. The shear will likely not be strong enough yet to weaken Lane below hurricane intensity as it makes its closest approach to the Hawaiian Islands. As a result, Hurricane Conditions are possible on the Big Island, Maui and Oahu as Lane moves northward. A Hurricane Warning is currently in effect for Hawaii County (including the Big Island), Maui County (including Maui, Lanai, Molokai and Kahoolawe), and all of Oahu. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Kauai County, including the islands of Kauai and Niihau. Lane should maintain hurricane intensity for about 48-60 hours or so, but is likely to quickly weaken on Sunday when it makes a sharp turn to the west. The timing of this turn is uncertain, and will likely determine whether Lane makes a direct landfall or not.

Hurricane conditions extend roughly 35 miles away from the center, and tropical storm conditions extend roughly 140 miles from the center. Since the Hawaiian Islands are east of Lane, they will be directly affected by the hurricane’s stronger east side. The current Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) predicts the center of Lane to remain offshore, but that does not mean impacts will not occur. Rainfall of 10-20 inches is expected on parts of the Hawaiian Islands, with isolated amounts of up to 30 inches. Parts of the Big Island have already received over a foot of rain.

Atlantic remains quiet, tropical wave unlikely to develop in the short term

The tropical Atlantic remains quiet, though the National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to monitor a tropical wave located off the western coast of Africa. They give this wave a near zero percent chance of development within 48 hours, and a 10 percent chance within five days. Global models continue to show no development with this wave, at least in the short term. This wave may have to be watched if it reaches more favorable conditions over the western Atlantic in about 10 days.

I will be back with an update tomorrow.