The Atlantic tropics are extremely active for October, with the basin having three named storms simultaneously active in the month for the first time since 1995. The strongest of these storms, Hurricane Michael, has intensified into the second major hurricane of the season over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and some additional intensification is expected before Michael makes landfall over the western Florida Panhandle. Long-lived Leslie, close to regaining hurricane intensity for the second time, could near Madeira Island and the Canary Islands as a tropical storm this weekend, an area not typically accustomed to tropical cyclones. Tropical Storm Nadine poses no threat to land, and will likely dissipate in a few days as it heads for hostile upper-level winds.

Michael a Category 3 major hurricane, may reach Category 4 status prior to landfall in Northwestern Florida

Despite moderate wind shear and some dry air, Hurricane Michael has rapidly intensified into a Category 3 hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Michael is the second major hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season. As of 4:00 p.m. CDT (5:00 p.m. EDT) Tuesday, Hurricane Michael was centered near 26.0°N 86.4°W, and was moving northward at about 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 105 knots (120 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 957 mb. Very cold cloud tops currently surround most of the hurricane, though the eye has been obscured at times this afternoon. Two Hurricane Hunter aircraft are currently investigating Michael, and the data suggests that Michael has now developed a closed eyewall and the hurricane is gaining strength. With sea surface temperatures near 29°C (84.2°F), wind shear less than 15 knots, and mid-level relative humidity values near 65 percent expected until landfall, additional intensification is expected, and Michael could become a Category 4 hurricane tonight if current trends continue. All of the global models continue to predict that Michael will be a very powerful hurricane, and that intensification may occur all the way until landfall. While most Northern Gulf of Mexico hurricanes typically weaken before landfall, especially this late in the season, that may not occur with Michael. Michael is the first major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico in the month of October since Wilma in 2005. All preparations in the Florida Panhandle should be RUSHED TO COMPLETION as Michael will be a very powerful hurricane at landfall. Michael is expected to make landfall on Thursday evening, and will quickly move northeastward through Georgia and the Carolinas before losing tropical characteristics by Friday afternoon.

Life-threatening storm surge, of up to 9-13 feet, is expected along the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend area. Heavy rainfall in excess of 6 inches is also possible throughout Michael’s path, including southeastern Alabama, central Georgia, and parts of the Carolinas. Michael is a very dangerous major hurricane and should be taken seriously.

A Hurricane Warning is currently in effect from the Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River, Florida. A Storm Surge Warning is currently in effect from the Okaloosa-Walton County Line in Florida to Anclote River, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning is currently in effect from Fernandina Beach, Florida to South Santee River, South Carolina. A Storm Surge Watch is currently in effect from Anclote River, Florida to Anna Maria Island, Florida, including Tampa Bay. The Storm Surge Watch is also in effect from Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa-Walton County Line, Florida. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria, Island Florida, including Tampa Bay, as well as from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River, South Santee River, South Carolina to Duck, North Carolina, and the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds.

Leslie near hurricane strength again, future track uncertain

Persistent Tropical Storm Leslie over the central Atlantic is once again nearing hurricane strength. Leslie, which has been active since September 23, may acquire a new peak intensity late this week over the eastern subtropical Atlantic. As of 5:00 p.m. EDT Tuesday, Tropical Storm Leslie was centered near 30.3°N 43.0°W, and was moving south-southeastward at about 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 60 knots (70 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 983 mb. The eventual track of Leslie remains uncertain, and it is possible Leslie could linger near the Canary Islands or Madeira this weekend as a tropical storm, or perhaps even turn back to the west.

Nadine forms over the eastern tropical Atlantic

The fourteenth named storm of the unexpectedly active 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, Tropical Storm Nadine, was named on Tuesday morning. As of 5:00 p.m. EDT Tuesday, Tropical Storm Nadine was centered near 10.9°N 30.6°W, and was moving west-northwestward at about 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 35 knots (40 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1005 mb. Nadine is no threat to land, and will likely dissipate this weekend due to strong upper-level winds. Nadine is unusual in that it is the easternmost forming tropical storm over the tropical Atlantic this late in the year. Normally, tropical cyclogenesis does not occur right off the African coast in October due to increasing wind shear and a weakening African monsoon, but Nadine has become an exception. Regardless, Nadine should not last long.