The 2019 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins one month from today, but the basin is already showing its first signs of life. A non-tropical trough of low pressure has developed near the Bahamas and is currently disorganized, but conditions may become a bit more favorable for some slight development by late this weekend if it remains offshore the Atlantic coast. If this system develops into a subtropical or tropical storm, it will be named Andrea.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued a Special Tropical Weather Outlook (STWO) for this disturbance on Wednesday morning, giving it a near zero percent chance of development within 48 hours and a 20 percent chance within five days. This is the first time the NHC has issued a Special Tropical Weather Outlook for any Atlantic disturbance in 2019.

This disturbance is poorly organized today, and is not close to becoming a tropical or subtropical cyclone at this time. It lacks a well-defined circulation, and a recent ASCAT pass showed maximum winds near 25 knots (30 mph). Last night, the disturbance appeared better organized, but strong wind shear and dry air has resulted in the convection decreasing today.

The 12z Wednesday model suite is not very aggressive in developing this disturbance. Only the UKMET and ICON models showed development with this system. The GFS, ECMWF, and CMC models showed the system being too close to the United States coast to acquire any tropical cyclone characteristics. Right now, it appears as if the wind threat with this disturbance is minimal, and most likely it will just bring some rain to Florida and the Southeastern United States. If this system does get named, it’s extremely unlikely to become anything more than a weak tropical or subtropical storm due to the less than ideal environment. Sea surface temperatures in the region are very marginal (around 25°C/77°F), though warmer than the long-term average.

Although May is not part of the official Atlantic hurricane season boundaries (June 1 to November 30), the month of May has featured a total of 8 tropical or subtropical cyclones forming in the Atlantic basin since 2007. The vast majority of them have formed in a similar region to this current disturbance, and were of non-tropical origin.

I will be back with an update on this disturbance tomorrow or Friday.