It is only the second day of the 2019 Pacific hurricane season, and there has already been a system designated an “Invest” by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). An Invest – short for area of investigation – is an area of disturbed weather that the NHC believes has a chance of tropical cyclone development. A disorganized area of disturbed weather, Invest 91E, may slowly develop over the next several days as it moves little.

As of 12:00 UTC May 16, 2019, Invest 91E was centered near 9.3°N 100.2°W. Maximum sustained winds were 20 knots (25 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1009 mb. Right now, Invest 91E is a disorganized mess, with no signs of imminent organization. The NHC gives 91E a 10 percent chance of development within 48 hours, and a 20 percent chance within five days.

Although conditions are expected to be favorable for development – wind shear is expected to remain less than 15 knots and the disturbance is over warm waters of greater than 29°C (84.2°F), the large, disorganized structure of the system will likely slow development. Right now, the model support is limited with 91E, with the latest ECMWF, GFS and UKMET model runs showing no development within the next five days. If 91E develops into a tropical storm it will be named Alvin.