Short-lived Subtropical Storm Andrea weakened into a Subtropical Depression on Tuesday morning, and as of 5:00 p.m. EDT, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has issued the last advisory on Andrea, which has degenerated into a post-tropical remnant low. Andrea has lacked persistent deep convection since early this morning, so it is no longer a subtropical cyclone. Also, we are watching a disturbance in the eastern Pacific once again for possible gradual development.

Short-lived Andrea now a post-tropical remnant low

As of 5:00 p.m. EDT Tuesday, Subtropical Storm Andrea was centered near 30.8°N 68.3°W and was moving east-northeastward at 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 30 knots (35 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1009 mb. Although Andrea was a subtropical storm yesterday with a persistent ball of convection near the center – the convection gradually waned overnight as the baroclinic forcing from a nearby upper-level low weakened. Andrea was unable to strengthen past its initial intensity, though it is possible the intensity of Andrea may have peaked shortly after the Hurricane Hunter plane left yesterday. Cool sea surface temperatures of less than 24°C (75.2°F), as well as dry mid-level air, should keep Andrea from reorganizing over the next couple days. Andrea’s remnants should absorbed by a frontal zone on Wednesday, if not sooner.

Chances increasing for first eastern Pacific tropical cyclone of 2019 by the weekend

The eastern Pacific so far is the only Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclone basin to not have a named storm yet. It is not particularly unusual that the first named storm has not formed yet in the eastern Pacific, the average first named storm in this basin forms on average around June 10 according to the NHC. It is possible that the eastern Pacific could see its first named storm as soon as late this week, as a broad area of low pressure has formed a few hundred miles south of El Salvador.

In their 11:00 a.m. PDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, the NHC gave this disturbance a 10 percent chance of development within 48 hours, and a 50 percent chance within five days. If this system develops into a tropical storm, it will be named Alvin. Interests along the Pacific coast of Mexico, Guatemala and El Salvador should monitor the progress of this system.

I will be back with an update on the tropics tomorrow.