Tomorrow marks the official start of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season, and right on schedule, there is a system in the Atlantic basin to watch already. One subtropical storm has already developed in the Atlantic in 2019 (Andrea, earlier this month). A broad area of low pressure over the Yucatan Peninsula has a small chance to develop into the Atlantic’s second named storm of 2019 if it has enough time over water. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives this system a 20 percent chance of development within 48 hours, and a 30 percent chance within five days. Even if development occurs, this system likely won’t spend enough time over water to strengthen significantly.

It should be noted, however, that the curvature of the Bay of Campeche often allows closed low pressure systems to form over the region. Both the ECMWF and GFS models predict a small low pressure system to form over the Bay Sunday, eventually moving inland into Veracruz, Mexico some time on Monday. If this system develops into a tropical storm, it will be named Barry. Interestingly, the last Atlantic named storm named Barry was named in the Bay of Campeche.