After a 232-day tropical cyclone drought, a tropical cyclone has formed in the eastern Pacific basin. A small area of low pressure developed into Tropical Depression One-E today, making it the latest-forming first tropical depression in the basin since reliable records began in 1971. One-E is likely to become a tropical storm, but is likely to be short-lived as it encounters unfavorable conditions later this week.

As of 2:00 p.m. PDT (5:00 p.m. EDT), Tropical Depression One-E was centered near 15.2°N 105.7°W, and was moving west-northwestward at about 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 25 knots (30 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1007 mb. This intensity may be a bit conservative, based on a recent microwave pass showing a mid-level eye-like feature. During the next 36 hours or so, sea surface temperatures are expected to remain above 26°C (78.8°F) with wind shear less than 10 knots, which favors development. It is likely that One-E will briefly become Tropical Storm Alvin on Wednesday. However, on Thursday, wind shear is expected to increase, while One-E moves over cooler waters into a drier environment. One-E should degenerate into a remnant low late Thursday or Friday. One-E is no threat to land.