Hurricane Barbara rapidly intensified into the first major hurricane of the 2019 Pacific hurricane season Tuesday morning by reaching Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Barbara reached Category 4 intensity less than 48 hours after being named on Sunday. Some slight intensification is possible tonight, but a gradual weakening trend is likely to begin Wednesday as Barbara moves toward cooler waters and increasing wind shear. Barbara is no imminent threat to land.

As of 11:00 a.m. HST (5:00 p.m. EDT), Hurricane Barbara was centered near 12.9°N 123.2°W and was moving west-northwestward at about 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 120 knots (140 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 945 mb. Barbara has a spectacular satellite appearance, with a distinct eye and very deep convection surrounding the eye. Some slight additional intensification is possible tonight while Barbara remains in a low-shear, warm-water environment. However, on Wednesday, sea surface temperatures are expected to drop below 27°C (80.6°F), which should start a gradual weakening trend with the hurricane. In addition, wind shear is expected to increase to over 15 knots in about 48 hours while mid-level relative humidity values drop below 55 percent, which should accelerate the weakening trend after that time. As a result, Barbara will likely degenerate into a remnant low well east of the Hawaiian Islands. It does not appear likely Barbara will pose a significant threat to the islands at this time, though some gusty winds and showers are possible if Barbara or its remnants track close to Hawaii. Regardless, interests in the Hawaiian islands should continue monitoring the progress of Barbara in case the forecast changes.

New tropical cyclone possible over the eastern Pacific late this week

Well east of Barbara, it appears likely that a new tropical cyclone will develop over the eastern Pacific late this week or this weekend. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives this disturbance a near zero percent chance of development within 48 hours, and a 70 percent chance within five days. Models have trended weaker with this disturbance, with the 12z ECMWF and GFS models only developing it into a tropical storm. The next named storm on the eastern Pacific naming list is Cosme.

The Atlantic basin remains quiet with no tropical cyclones expected to form over at least the next five days, with no indications of any activity on the global models.