Invest 92L has emerged over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, and is likely to slowly organize into a tropical cyclone over the next day or two. Although the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is currently disorganized, 92L should gradually become better organized over the next few days. Global models have come into better agreement, with most of the recent models predicting that 92L will be a strong tropical storm or low-end hurricane making landfall somewhere in Louisiana on Saturday. However, the track and intensity forecast remains quite uncertain, as a well-defined center of circulation has not yet formed.

As of 18:00 UTC Tuesday, Invest 92L was located near 29.5°N 84.0°W. Maximum sustained winds were 20 knots (25 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1011 mb. 92L is currently a broad low pressure area, with no well-defined center of circulation. It remains to be seen if and where a well-defined center will develop, because the location of where the center forms could have significant implications on track and intensity. If the center forms farther south, it could favor a stronger storm and a landfall farther west. If the center forms more north than expected, it would favor a weaker system, with a landfall farther east. The size of the circulation could also make a large difference with how intense 92L eventually gets: smaller systems are prone to rapid intensity changes more commonly than larger systems.

The 18z run of the SHIPS model depicted a somewhat favorable environment for development. Sea surface temperatures are very warm at 30-31°C (86-87.8°F), which is more than warm enough to support a powerful hurricane. However, 92L is likely to encounter moderate northerly shear of about 15-20 knots over the next several days, which could slow development and intensification. The mid-level environment appears fairly dry but not enough to preclude development, with relative humidity values expected to be near 60 percent for the next five days. Global models have trended stronger in intensity today, with the ECMWF model predicting 92L to be a 983 mb minimal hurricane at landfall in central Louisiana. The GFS was slightly west of the ECMWF, with a 986 mb strong tropical storm. The outlier in intensity was the UKMET model, which deepens 92L to 946 mb, since it shows a landfall farther west than the GFS and ECMWF.

While the model track guidance has trended more to a Louisiana landfall today, a landfall in eastern Texas or even Mississippi cannot be ruled out yet. Interests from the Mississippi Gulf Coast all the way to the Texas Gulf Coast should continue monitoring 92L closely, as it appears likely to be at least a heavy rainfall threat. It is possible that the northerly shear may limit rainfall totals by displacing most of 92L’s convection to the south, but the Northern Gulf Coast should be in for heavy rainfall regardless of development. If 92L is as strong as today’s global models suggest, hurricane-force gusts and storm surge is also possible, especially east of the center. I expect the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to initiate advisories on a Potential Tropical Cyclone no later than tomorrow afternoon, with watches and warnings likely being issued. The NHC gives 92L a 70 percent chance of development within 48 hours, and an 80 percent chance within five days. If 92L becomes a tropical storm, it will be named Barry.