The National Hurricane Center (NHC) initiated advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Wednesday morning. Although Two is not yet a tropical cyclone, it has the potential to bring tropical storm conditions to southeastern Louisiana within 48 hours. A Hurricane Watch has been issued from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Cameron, Louisiana. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the Mouth of the Pearl River to Intracoastal City, and a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Mouth of the Mississippi River northward to the Mouth of the Pearl River. Regardless of how strong Potential Tropical Cyclone Two gets, it will bring the threat of very heavy rainfall and flooding to the Northern Gulf Coast. PTC Two has a significant chance of becoming a Category 1 hurricane prior to making landfall. The exact location of landfall remains uncertain, but it could be anywhere from eastern Texas to southeastern Louisiana.

As of 4:00 p.m. CDT (5:00 p.m. EDT) Wednesday, Potential Tropical Cyclone Two was centered near 28.1°N 87.4°W, and was moving west-southwestward at 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 25 knots (30 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1011 mb. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently investigating PTC Two, and so far has found a broad, disorganized low pressure system with no well-defined center of circulation. The associated convective activity is not yet well organized. However, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development over the next 24 hours, and PTC Two should become Tropical Storm Barry by Thursday afternoon. Intensification should be quite slow for the next 24 hours or so since PTC Two has not quite yet developed a well-defined center. Once that occurs, which appears nearly certain at this point, a faster rate of intensification is possible. PTC Two is currently being affected by some northerly shear of about 15 knots, but the shear is expected to relax some in a day or two. In addition, while PTC Two is currently over sea surface temperatures of around 29°C (84.2°F), sea surface temperatures are expected to increase further to 31°C (87.8°F) by late Friday. These factors favor intensification, perhaps rapid, and it is likely that PTC Two will intensify right up until landfall. It likely will not have enough time to become a major (Category 3+) hurricane, but considering the extremely warm sea surface temperatures and low-shear environment, this possibility cannot be dismissed. Residents of Louisiana should have their hurricane plan ready.

The majority of models (GFS, ECMWF, HWRF, and HMON) show PTC Two making a gradual turn to the north on Saturday, while the UKMET model is much farther west and shows a landfall in eastern Texas. While it appears that the UKMET model is an outlier at this time, it is too soon to rule out a Texas landfall. However, based on the model consensus, a landfall in Louisiana seems much more likely. The most likely time for landfall would be Saturday morning or afternoon, but this could change depending on the exact track of Two. It should be stressed that people should not focus on the exact track of the center of the storm, since impacts stretch well beyond the center. Heavy rainfall of up to 2 feet is possible east of the center, as suggested by recent model runs. Water is generally a much bigger threat in a tropical cyclone than wind! Even if Two does not reach hurricane status, it will bring lots of rain.