The tropics are heating up in both the Atlantic and Pacific, with multiple systems to watch in both basins. Hurricanes Erick and Flossie are currently active over the Pacific, and two tropical waves (including Invest 95L) over the tropical Atlantic warrant monitoring.

Erick rapidly intensifies to a Category 4 hurricane, but likely to weaken as it remains south of the Hawaiian Islands

Hurricane Erick has rapidly intensified into the second major hurricane of the 2019 Pacific hurricane season. As of 11:00 a.m. HST (5:00 p.m. EDT), Hurricane Erick was centered near 13.6°N 144.1°W and was moving westward at about 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 115 knots (130 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 952 mb. Erick has developed a tiny but fairly well-defined eye that is visible on infrared and visible satellite imagery. Erick has been able to rapidly intensify due to warm sea surface temperatures and light wind shear. Although some slight additional intensification is possible for the next 12 hours or so as shear is low and sea surface temperatures are warm, shear is expected to sharply increase to above 35 knots in about 60 hours, which should quickly weaken Erick. The center of Erick should pass well south of the Hawaiian Islands, though it is possible the islands may get some rain showers from Erick as it weakens. Since Erick has passed west of 140°W, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center is now issuing advisories on the storm.

Flossie becomes the eastern Pacific’s fourth hurricane of 2019

Tropical Storm Flossie has intensified into a Category 1 hurricane over the eastern Pacific, the fourth of the season. As of 11:00 a.m. HST (5:00 p.m. EDT), Hurricane Flossie was centered near 12.3°N 121.3°W, and was moving northward at about 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 65 knots (75 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 995 mb. Additional intensification is possible for the next 36-48 hours, as Flossie remains over warm sea surface temperatures. However, the SHIPS model shows wind shear increasing to about 25 knots in 24 hours, which could slow intensification or even cause slight weakening. Regardless, the NHC forecast calls for intensification and Flossie will likely reach Category 2 strength on Wednesday. Sea surface temperatures are expected to drop below 27°C (80.6 °F) in about three days, which should induce a slow weakening trend. As Flossie moves into the Central Pacific, wind shear is expected to increase as well, so it is likely that Flossie will be on a weakening trend as it approaches the Hawaiian Islands. It remains too soon to tell what impact Flossie will have on Hawaii, but it is unlikely that the island chain will be hit by a hurricane due to the unfavorable environmental conditions expected as Flossie enters the Central Pacific. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of Flossie, even if a hurricane landfall does not appear likely at this time.

Invest 95L remains disorganized, unlikely to develop

The first tropical wave currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center, Invest 95L, remains disorganized and significant development appears unlikely. As of 12:00 UTC Tuesday, Invest 95L was located near 17.4°N 68.0°W, and was moving northwestward. It appears likely that land interaction with Puerto Rico and Hispaniola will interfere with any significant development. None of the 12z ECMWF, UKMET and GFS models predict development with 95L. Considering how disorganized this system is now and interaction with Hispaniola will only further disrupt this system, developing of 95L looks unlikely. 95L is expected to remain in moderate wind shear (15-20 knots) for the next several days. There is a small window of development in a few days, but chances don’t appear high. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives 95L a near zero percent chance of development within 48 hours, and a 10 percent chance within five days.

Tropical wave over the eastern Atlantic a likelier threat to develop

A strong tropical wave exited the coast of West Africa Sunday night. This tropical wave is currently in an environment hostile for development, but environmental conditions are likely to become more favorable by the weekend as the wave approaches the Leeward Islands. The NHC gives this wave a near zero percent chance of development within 48 hours, and a 20 percent chance within five days.

Model support for this wave is greater than for 95L. The ECMWF model has been consistent on developing this system into a tropical depression in about 6 days as it approaches the Lesser Antilles. If this wave is able to avoid significant land interaction with Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, significant development cannot be ruled out. The GFS model has recently come on board with developing this wave, but not until about 10 days from now in the Bahamas. The UKMET model developed this wave yesterday, but has since backed off. It is a wave worth watching, and should be designated Invest 96L soon. The next name on the Atlantic naming list is Chantal.