Hurricane Dorian rapidly intensified once again overnight, and this morning has become the strongest hurricane on record in the Bahamas region of the Atlantic. Dorian has become a Category 5 hurricane, the fifth in the last four years, making 2016 to 2019 the first time on record that four consecutive Atlantic hurricane seasons had at least one Category 5 hurricane.

As of 11:00 a.m. EDT Sunday, Hurricane Dorian was centered near 26.5°N 76.8°W, and was moving westward at about 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 155 knots (180 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 913 mb. Two reconnaissance aircraft have been investigating Dorian this morning, and the hurricane still appears to be intensifying. Although some slight additional intensification is possible, Dorian is getting very close to its maximum potential intensity. Dorian should begin to weaken soon due to an eyewall replacement cycle or land interaction with Abacos Island, but this storm’s structure has been amazingly resilient. The eye of Dorian is very close to making landfall in Abacos Island, Bahamas, and the island is already observing castastrophic conditions.

Dorian should move very slowly westward or west-northwestward over the next 36 to 48 hours as a very intense hurricane. What happens after this time is uncertain. While most of the model guidance keeps Dorian’s center offshore Florida, a direct landfall still cannot be ruled out at this point. The ECMWF model shows Dorian remaining very close to the east coast of the United States through North Carolina, when it begins to move faster to the northeast. The GFS model shows Dorian making landfall in the Outer Banks region of North Carolina. The HWRF hurricane model shows Dorian making landfall in northeastern Florida. Even if Dorian does not make landfall, it could bring hurricane-force winds to the east coast of Florida, and possibly even Georgia and the Carolinas. Coastal residents of Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas should continue closely monitoring the progress of Dorian and have a hurricane plan ready.

A Hurricane Warning is currently in effect for the Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island. A Hurricane Watch is currently in effect for Andros Island, as well as the Florida coast from Deerfield Beach to the Volusia/Brevard County Line. A Tropical Storm Warning is currently in effect from Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet, and a Tropical Storm Watch is currently in effect from Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach, as well as Lake Okeechobee.