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Month: May 2020

92L could become a short-lived subtropical cyclone, 91E likely to develop over eastern Pacific

92L could become a short-lived subtropical cyclone, 91E likely to develop over eastern Pacific

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For the first time in 2020, there is an Invest (area of investigation) over both the North Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins. Invest 92L over the central Atlantic could become a short-lived, weak subtropical cyclone during the next two days. Invest 91E is likely to develop into a weak tropical cyclone over the extreme eastern Pacific, but brings a heavy rainfall threat to southern Mexico and central America regardless of development. The next name on the Atlantic naming list is…

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Surprise TS Bertha makes landfall near Mount Pleasant, SC; eastern Pacific development likely this weekend

Surprise TS Bertha makes landfall near Mount Pleasant, SC; eastern Pacific development likely this weekend

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Yet another May tropical storm has formed over the Atlantic, this time rather unexpectedly. On Wednesday morning, Invest 91L developed a new circulation center underneath the convection mass, and 91L rapidly developed into Tropical Storm Bertha. Bertha has already moved inland into South Carolina, and weakening has already begun. Bertha is the Atlantic’s second tropical storm, approximately two months ahead of climatology. Bertha’s formation makes 2020 the first season since 2016 to feature two pre-season tropical cyclones, and the first…

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Cyclonic Fury’s May 2020 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: Potentially well above-average season predicted

Cyclonic Fury’s May 2020 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: Potentially well above-average season predicted

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The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on Monday, June 1, but the Atlantic has already seen one tropical storm form – Arthur. Arthur formed off the United States East Coast on May 16 and passed very close to the North Carolina Outer Banks on May 18, though overall effects were minimal. Our confidence has increased since late March that the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season will probably more active than normal, since the equatorial Pacific has cooled to below-normal levels,…

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Surface trough off eastern Florida not likely to become a tropical cyclone, eastern Pacific development possible late this week

Surface trough off eastern Florida not likely to become a tropical cyclone, eastern Pacific development possible late this week

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A surface trough is currently producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity off the eastern coast of Florida. Due to strong upper-level winds, development of this trough into a tropical cyclone is unlikely at this time. Regardless, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives this disturbance a 20% chance of development, within both the next 48 hours and five days. More likely, however, is the potential development of a tropical cyclone over the far eastern Pacific. A Central American Gyre (CAG) –…

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TS Arthur moving away from North Carolina, expected to become post-tropical Tuesday

TS Arthur moving away from North Carolina, expected to become post-tropical Tuesday

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The center of Tropical Storm Arthur passed very close to the North Carolina Outer Banks on Monday morning, though the center did not make landfall. After Arthur’s convective structure degraded on Sunday, deep convection redeveloped on Monday morning, and Arthur strengthened. Arthur produced sustained tropical storm force winds across portions of the Outer Banks this morning and afternoon. All Tropical Storm Warnings were discontinued at the 5:00 p.m. EDT Monday advisory. As of 5:00 p.m. EDT Monday, Tropical Storm Arthur…

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TS Arthur likely to bring rainfall to eastern North Carolina on Monday

TS Arthur likely to bring rainfall to eastern North Carolina on Monday

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Tropical Storm Arthur, the first named storm of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, was named Saturday night, but is struggling with marginal sea surface temperatures and dry air. As of 11:00 p.m. EDT Sunday, Tropical Storm Arthur was centered near 32.4°N 76.9°W, and was moving north-northeastward at about 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 40 knots (45 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1003 mb. The center of Arthur was approximately 210 miles south-southwest of Hatteras, North Carolina. Arthur’s…

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Tropical Depression One Forms East Of Florida, May Bring Tropical Storm Conditions to NC Outer Banks

Tropical Depression One Forms East Of Florida, May Bring Tropical Storm Conditions to NC Outer Banks

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The North Atlantic’s first tropical depression of 2020 developed Saturday evening – Tropical Depression One. The formation of TD One makes 2020 the sixth consecutive year in which the Atlantic basin has had tropical or subtropical cyclone activity prior to the official start of the season (June 1). 2020 is also the third straight year with a May subtropical or tropical cyclone, and five of the last six years have had May activity in the Atlantic basin. TD One is…

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Invest 90L likely to become tropical or subtropical storm near the Bahamas by Saturday night

Invest 90L likely to become tropical or subtropical storm near the Bahamas by Saturday night

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It appears very likely that the Atlantic’s streak of pre-season tropical activity, which began in 2015, will continue for a sixth year. A trough of low pressure – now designated Invest 90L – is likely to organize into 2020’s first tropical or subtropical cyclone, possibly as soon as Friday evening. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been tentatively scheduled to investigate 90L on Friday afternoon. As of 2:40 p.m. EDT Thursday, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) gave 90L…

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2020 Atlantic hurricane season names

2020 Atlantic hurricane season names

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With the start of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season quickly approaching and the first named storm – Arthur – likely this weekend, I figured it would be a good time to review the names being used for this season. Arthur’s previous incarnation in 2014 became the earliest hurricane to make landfall in North Carolina, but since the name was not retired, it is going to be used again this year. Several other names that have been used several times are…

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Pre-season subtropical development possible this weekend north of the Bahamas

Pre-season subtropical development possible this weekend north of the Bahamas

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An area of low pressure is expected to develop north of the Bahamas on Saturday. This area of low pressure has a medium chance to become the Atlantic’s first subtropical or tropical cyclone of 2020. Although the Atlantic hurricane season does not officially begin until June 1, the month of May has seen a total of 9 subtropical or tropical cyclones form since 2007. These cyclones include Subtropical Storm Andrea (2007), Tropical Storm Arthur (2008), Tropical Depression One (2009), Tropical…

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