A surface trough is currently producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity off the eastern coast of Florida. Due to strong upper-level winds, development of this trough into a tropical cyclone is unlikely at this time. Regardless, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives this disturbance a 20% chance of development, within both the next 48 hours and five days.

More likely, however, is the potential development of a tropical cyclone over the far eastern Pacific. A Central American Gyre (CAG) – a common early-season tropical phenomenon – is likely to develop this week, which is expected to result in the formation of a At 5:00 p.m. PDT (8:00 p.m. EDT) Monday, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) gave this system a near zero percent chance of development within 48 hours, but a 60 percent chance within five days. If this system organizes into a tropical storm, it will be named Amanda. Interests in southern Mexico and central America should monitor the development of this system. Models remain split on possible outcomes. The GFS model predicts a stronger cyclone to make landfall in El Salvador, with the possibility of reorganization if the low pressure system enters the Caribbean Sea, while the ECMWF predicts a weaker cyclone to stay offshore. The UKMET model is somewhat in between the two solutions. The operational 18z GFS, as well as some GEFS and EPS members, suggest that reorganization over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea or Bay of Campeche may occur, but this remains over a week out and exact details are unclear at this time. Even if a tropical cyclone does not form, heavy rainfall is likely over Central America. The first name on the eastern Pacific naming list is Amanda, though the eastern Pacific already had Tropical Depression One-E form in late April.