The Atlantic’s earliest third named storm on record was named Tuesday morning – Tropical Storm Cristobal. Cristobal broke the record previously held by Tropical Storm Colin of 2016, which formed on June 5. Cristobal, which is located over the extreme southeastern Bay of Campeche, is likely to make landfall in the Mexican state of Campeche during the next day or so, before moving northward and threatening the United States Gulf Coast on Sunday or Monday. Note that the name Cristobal is pronounced KREES-TOH-BAHL.

As of 4:00 p.m. CDT Tuesday, Tropical Storm Cristobal was centered near 19.1°N 92.5°W, and was moving southward at about 3 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 35 knots (40 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1004 mb. A reconnaissance aircraft investigated Cristobal this morning, finding tropical storm-force winds. Another aircraft is scheduled to visit Cristobal this evening. Cristobal has become somewhat better organized today, and some slight intensification is likely prior to Cristobal making landfall in Campeche. It appears much more likely that Cristobal will make landfall in Mexico, but farther east than yesterday’s models indicated. Even if Cristobal does not make landfall in Mexico, there is a threat for heavy rainfall in the Mexican states of Tabasco and Campeche. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Campeche, Mexico to Puerto de Veracruz, Mexico. Cristobal is likely to continue on its southward motion for the next day or so, before turning eastward and eventually northward by late Thursday. A weakening of the ridge over the eastern United States will allow Cristobal to move northward. On Friday, Cristobal should accelerate to the north as it emerges into the central Gulf of Mexico. Compared to yesterday, it appears much more likely now that Cristobal will remain the primary system, rather than a new tropical cyclone developing north of the Yucatan Peninsula this weekend as many models suggested yesterday.

The intensity forecast is tricky. Currently, Cristobal is located in a favorable environment for intensification, with wind shear analyzed less than 10 knots, sea surface temperatures of 29°C (84.2°F), and 700-500 mb relative humidity values near 80 percent. However, Cristobal’s southward motion suggests that the tropical storm will likely make landfall some time during the next 12-24 hours, and land interaction should halt intensification or perhaps even weaken the tropical cyclone depending on how far inland Cristobal’s center gets. As Cristobal emerges into the central Gulf of Mexico, sea surface temperatures will slowly cool, and wind shear is expected to increase into the moderate range, about 15-20 knots. The 12z GFS and UKMET models showed significant land interaction over Capeche and the Yucatan Peninsula, with the cyclone possibly losing its low-level circulation. The models both redevelop Cristobal into a moderate to strong tropical storm over the central Gulf of Mexico, predicting a landfall somewhere along the Central Gulf Coast. The 12z ECMWF model is stronger than the GFS and UKMET, and brings Cristobal to near hurricane strength with a landfall in Central Louisiana on Sunday night. Interests along the Gulf Coast of the United States from eastern Texas to the Florida Panhandle should closely monitor the progress of Cristobal. Although I would not rule out a Category 1 hurricane landfall, cooler sea surface temperatures than during the peak of the season (27°C/80.6°F), as well as increasing shear, will likely limit extremely rapid intensification over the Gulf of Mexico. The record for the earliest hurricane landfall for the United States is currently held by Hurricane Alma of 1966, which made landfall in Florida on June 9. There has not been a June hurricane to make landfall in the United States since Hurricane Bonnie in 1986.

I will be back with another update on Cristobal tomorrow.