Tropical Storm Cristobal, which made landfall in Campeche, Mexico on Wednesday morning with 60 mph winds, has reemerged into the Gulf of Mexico and regained tropical storm status. Cristobal could strengthen a bit more prior to making landfall in eastern Louisiana late Sunday, but the storm is not expected to reach hurricane intensity.

As of 1:00 p.m. CDT (2:00 p.m. EDT) Saturday, Tropical Storm Cristobal was centered near 24.7°N 90.2°W, and was moving northward at about 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 45 knots (50 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 994 mb. Cristobal is currently a large cyclone that lacks an inner core, and the appearance on visible satellite somewhat resembles a subtropical cyclone. However, Cristobal still has a warm core, so it still qualifies as a tropical storm despite the atypical structure. Although vertical wind shear is quite low (analyzed at less than 10 knots), dry air from an upper-level low to Cristobal’s west has become entrained in the storm’s circulation. Had Cristobal not been inland over Mexico for two days, it very likely would have become a hurricane due to its initial tight circulation. Some slight additional intensification before landfall could occur, but none of the guidance brings Cristobal to hurricane strength. The GFS model has recently shown that Cristobal could develop more central convection prior to landfall, which could allow for a bit more intensification on Sunday. Cristobal’s center should make landfall as a tropical storm on Sunday evening over east-central Louisiana, and Cristobal should weaken and lose tropical characteristics by Tuesday.

The primary threat of Cristobal is heavy rainfall and storm surge. A Storm Surge Warning is currently in effect from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, as well as Lake Borgne. A Storm Surge Watch is currently in effect from east of Morgan City, Louisiana to the Mouth of the Mississippi River. A Tropical Storm Warning is currently in effect from east of Morgan City, Louisiana to the Mouth of the Mississippi River, as well as Lakes Pontchartrain and Maurepas. In the regions with a Storm Surge Warning, a storm surge of up to 3-5 feet is anticipated. Per the National Hurricane Center, Cristobal is likely to produce rainfall totals of 4-8 inches along the central and eastern Gulf Coast, with isolated totals of more than 12 inches possible.