For the first time of 2020, two Atlantic tropical cyclones are active at once. Small Tropical Storm Gonzalo over the central tropical Atlantic unexpectedly weakened on Friday, which is not too surprising considering small tropical cyclones often undergo unexpected intensity changes. Meanwhile, Tropical Depression Eight formed over the central Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday night, and is likely to become a tropical storm very soon as it moves westward towards Texas. The current record earliest 8th tropical storm was Tropical Storm Harvey of 2005, which formed on August 3. TD Eight appears poised to break that record. Interestingly the last time this naming list was used in 2014, Tropical Storm Hanna was the final named storm of the season in late October. This month of July has already featured four tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin, which is well above the long-term average of one (though so far none of them have reached hurricane strength).

As of 5:00 p.m. EDT Thursday, Tropical Storm Gonzalo was centered near 9.8°N 49.4°W, and was moving westward at about 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 50 knots (60 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1000 mb. Although the environment for Gonzalo appears favorable for intensification on statistical guidance (with warm waters and relatively light shear), Gonzalo’s structure has degraded significantly since yesterday. Although some re-intensification is still possible (and the NHC forecast continues to predict Gonzalo will reach minimal hurricane strength), it now appears unlikely in my opinion that Gonzalo will attain hurricane strength as it approaches the Windward Islands. The HWRF model still shows this possibility, but it depicted Gonzalo as a much stronger cyclone today than in reality in its runs yesterday. Regardless, Hurricane Watches remain in effect for Barbados, St. Vincent, and the Grenadines, so interests in the Windward Islands should continue monitoring Gonzalo. Because of Gonzalo’s small size, intensity forecasting is very difficult, and it is possible Gonzalo could even dissipate within the next couple of days. Gonzalo is still likely to bring tropical storm conditions to the Windward Islands on Saturday night or Sunday morning.

As of 4:00 p.m. CDT Thursday, Tropical Depression Eight was centered near 26.1°N 90.7°W, and was moving west-northwestward at about 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 30 knots (35 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1006 mb. The depression is gradually getting better organized, and some Dvorak estimates actually are near tropical storm strength. Due to light shear (less than 15 knots), warm sea surface temperatures of 29-30°C (84.2-86°F), and a relatively moist mid-level atmosphere, intensification appears likely, and it is likely TD Eight will become a moderate to strong tropical storm before moving inland into southeastern Texas. Hurricane strength at the moment appears unlikely based on the model guidance, but cannot be ruled out just yet if TD Eight is able to develop an inner core sooner than expected. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Texas Coast from Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has also highlighted a new tropical wave, which has just recently exited Africa, for potential development as it approaches the Lesser Antilles by the middle of next week. The NHC gives this wave a near zero percent chance of development within 48 hours, and a 20 percent chance within five days. The ECMWF model has been somewhat bullish on this wave developing, developing into a tropical storm by the middle of next week with some members making it a strong hurricane in the long range. The UKMET also develops this wave into a weak tropical cyclone east of the Lesser Antilles, while the GFS model currently shows no development.