It’s a very busy Saturday in late July in the tropics. In the western Gulf of Mexico, Tropical Storm Hanna has strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane, making it the first hurricane of the season. Near the Windward Islands, Tropical Storm Gonzalo is likely very close to opening up into a tropical wave. In the Central Pacific, Hurricane Douglas is gradually weakening, but still could be a tropical cyclone near the Hawaiian Islands. In the far eastern Atlantic, there is another tropical wave to watch – Invest 92L, but it remains way too soon to predict its future.

As of 10:00 p.m. CDT Saturday, Hurricane Hanna was centered near 27.1°N 96.3°W, and was moving westward at about 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 70 knots (80 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 978 mb. Hanna has been able to reach hurricane strength because it was able to develop a closed eyewall, and some additional intensification before landfall in Southern Texas in about 10-12 hours appears possible. The eye has recently started to become apparent on visible satellite imagery. It is not out of the question, though unlikely, that Hanna could briefly attain Category 2 strength before landfall. Fortunately, Hanna is expected to make landfall in a relatively sparsely populated area of South Texas. It is interesting to note that all of the global models and statistical guidance were way too weak with Hanna, and a hurricane threatening South Texas seemed highly improbable just two days ago. Hanna has become the first hurricane of the season, after the first seven named storms of the season failed to reach hurricane strength. The average first Atlantic hurricane forms around August 10, so Hanna formed about two weeks earlier than the average date.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from Port Mansfield to Sargent, Texas. A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Port Mansfield to Mesquite Bay, Texas. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Mesquite Bay to Sargent, Texas, as well as from Berra el Mezquital, Mexico to Port Mansfield, Texas. The maximum storm surge expected from Hanna is expected to be from Baffin Bay to Mesquite Bay, of about 3 to 5 feet. Rainfall totals from 6 to 12 inches are likely across south Texas, with some isolated amounts possible.