After a long trek over the Greater Antilles, Tropical Storm Laura intensified into the fourth hurricane of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season on Tuesday morning over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Laura is likely to continue intensifying over the Gulf of Mexico as it moves northwestward, and is likely to become the first major hurricane of the season prior to making landfall somewhere near the Texas-Louisiana border. The exact landfall location remains uncertain, but there is more clarity today.

As of 4:00 p.m. CDT (5:00 p.m. EDT) Tuesday, Hurricane Laura was centered near 24.7°N 88.3°W, and was moving west-northwestward at about 17 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 70 knots (80 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 990 mb. Earlier this morning, Laura was struggling with northerly shear, but the shear has begun to lessen, and the hurricane is attempting to close off an eyewall. There has not been any reconnaissance aircraft data available for the last few hours, so it is unclear how much Laura has strengthened since that time. Both a NOAA and Air Force reconaissaince aircraft are scheduled to investigate Laura this evening and should provide a better estimate of Laura’s current intensity. Laura’s inner core remains somewhat broad, which is likely to limit any rapid intensification in the short term. During the next 24 hours, Laura is expected to be in a very favorable environment with sea surface temperatures near 30°C (86°F), wind shear less than 15 knots, and a sufficiently moist mid-level environment. This could allow rapid intensification to occur, though the statistical guidance is somewhat less aggressive than the global and hurricane models. It remains a distinct possibility Laura could reach Category 4 intensity prior to landfall, though not explicitly forecast at this time. Laura should turn more to the northwest on Wednesday, and should be moving northward when it makes landfall very early Thursday morning. After moving inland, Laura should quickly weaken as it turns northeastward towards the mid-Atlantic United States, and then possibly may restrengthen to a tropical storm force post-tropical cyclone over the weekend. Fortunately, Laura will be moving relatively quickly, unlike Hurricane Harvey from 2017.

A Hurricane Warning is currently in effect from San Luis Pass, Texas, to Intracoastal City, Louisiana. A Storm Surge Warning is currently in effect from San Luis Pass, Texas to the mouth of the Mississippi River. A Tropical Storm Warning is currently in effect from Sargent, Texas to San Luis Pass, as well as from Intracoastal City, Louisiana to the Mouth of the Mississippi River. The greatest storm surge is expected to be in the Storm Surge Warning region, with a surge of 9-13 feet possible. Some tornadoes are possible northeast of the center.