Today is June 1, the official start date of the Atlantic hurricane season. As has been the case every year since 2015, a pre-season named storm has already developed – Tropical Storm Ana, which developed northeast of Bermuda in late May and had very minimal impact. While there are currently no active tropical cyclones or disturbances in the Atlantic, Tropical Storm Blanca is active over the eastern Pacific, but poses no threat to land and is likely to weaken soon.

The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season officially starts today. The above list of names will be used to name all tropical and subtropical cyclones this season once they gain maximum sustained winds of at least 39 mph. One name, Ana, has already been crossed off the list. It is interesting to note that this list has only gotten past the name Kate once, due to the fact that five of the seven years this list were used were in El Niño years (with the only exceptions being 1985 and 2003). It appears unlikely that El Niño will develop in 2021, so it is likely that 2021 will be only the second season to get to the name Larry and beyond. Cyclonic Fury predicted 15-20 named storms in our late May forecast, which would suggest the Atlantic finishes between the names Odette and Victor. The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season will run until November 30, but in rare cases, activity can continue beyond that date – most recently an unnamed subtropical storm in December 2013.

Tropical Storm Blanca likely to weaken soon

On Monday, Tropical Storm Blanca formed, making it the second named storm of the 2021 Pacific hurricane season. After some quick intensification last night, Blanca’s intensity has leveled off, and the tropical storm appears likely to weaken soon as it enters a less favorable environment. As of 9:00 a.m. MDT (11:00 a.m. EDT), Tropical Storm Blanca was centered near 14.3°N 110.2°W, and was moving west-northwestward at about 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 50 knots (60 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 999 mb. Wind shear is expected to remain low-to-moderate for the next five days (about 10-15 knots) based on the latest GFS-based SHIPS model, but Blanca is heading for cooler sea surface temperatures and a drier, more stable environment. Blanca is no threat to land and will likely become a remnant low by the weekend.

Nothing in the Atlantic right now, but that could soon change

At the moment, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is not expecting any disturbances to develop into tropical cyclones in the Atlantic during the next five days. However, there are signals in the model guidance, such as the GEFS and EPS ensemble suites, that a classic Central American Gyre (CAG) setup may develop in about 10 days, with potential for tropical cyclogenesis over the northwestern Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, or potentially even eastern Pacific thereafter. At this advanced stage, it is FAR too soon to speculate about track or intensity, or if a cyclone will even develop. Regardless, this pattern bears watching.