The fifth named storm of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season and first named storm of July, Tropical Storm Elsa, was named early Thursday morning over the deep tropical Atlantic. Elsa is the Atlantic’s earliest fifth named storm on record, breaking the record of Tropical Storm Edouard set just last year. Elsa is likely to bring tropical storm conditions to the Lesser Antilles on Friday and likely the Greater Antilles this weekend.

As of 5:00 p.m. EDT Thursday, Tropical Storm Elsa was centered near 11.2°N 53.8°W, and was moving west-northwestward at 29 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 40 knots (45 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1005 mb. Elsa has changed little in organization today, and the low-level circulation has been partially exposed for much of the day. Elsa’s very quick forward speed has likely limited its ability to strengthen, despite warm sea surface temperatures, a moist mid-level environment and low wind shear. Elsa’s forecast remains tricky. The environment isn’t expected to change much over the next 24 hours or so, so some intensification is possible, but it is possible the fast forward motion will keep Elsa’s low and mid-level centers decoupled. This will make it difficult for an inner core to develop. A series of reconnaissance aircraft missions are scheduled for Elsa on Friday, with the first mission scheduled to investigate the storm at 7:30 a.m. EDT tomorrow. Regardless, Elsa is likely to be at least a moderately strong tropical storm when it passes near Barbados and the Windward Islands. What happens after Elsa enters the Caribbean Sea is where the uncertainty lies. The GFS and HWRF models continue to intensify Elsa into a hurricane as it approaches Jamaica and Cuba, and the statistical models are similar. The ECMWF and UKMET models, on the other hand, are much weaker, and suggest that Elsa could degenerate into a trough of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea near Hispaniola. Considering climatology and Elsa’s lack of current organization, I lean more to the weaker models, but I still think the stronger models should not be discounted. If Elsa’s circulation is not severely disrupted by the Greater Antilles, it is possible the storm could threaten Florida in about 4-6 days, but there is still great uncertainty as to whether Elsa will even still be a tropical cyclone by that time. A Tropical Storm Warning is currently in effect for Barbados, Martinique, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, while a Tropical Storm Watch is currently in effect for Grenada, its dependencies, and southwestern Haiti from the southern border of the Dominican Republic to Le Mole le St. Nicholas. According to the National Hurricane Center, Elsa is likely to produce around 3-6 inches of rainfall with isolated amounts of greater than 10 inches on Friday in the Windward Islands. In Southern Hispaniola, Elsa may produce 4-8 inches of rainfall with isolated mounts of greater than 12 inches this weekend.