The Atlantic basin continues to get more active as the peak of the hurricane season draws closer. Tropical Storm Fred made landfall near Cape San Blas, Florida around 2:15 p.m. CDT (3:15 p.m. EDT), with maximum sustained winds near 65 mph and a minimum pressure of 994 mb. While Fred is likely to dissipate in a couple of days, Tropical Depression Grace is likely to regain strength, potentially becoming a hurricane later this week in the southern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm Henri has also developed southeast of Bermuda, but appears unlikely to threaten land at this time.

As of 4:00 p.m. CDT (5:00 p.m. EDT) Monday, Tropical Storm Fred was centered near 29.9°N 85.3°W, and was moving north-northeastward at about 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 50 knots (60 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 995 mb. After making landfall around 2:15 p.m. CDT with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph, Fred has begun to weaken, and will continue to weaken over the next 48 hours. Fred is likely to become a post-tropical remnant low in about 36 hours or so, and should dissipate by early Thursday morning. The primary threat with Fred remains rainfall.

As of 5:00 p.m. EDT Monday, Tropical Depression Grace was centered near 17.9°N 72.4°W, and was moving west-northwestward at about 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 30 knots (35 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1007 mb. Grace likely made landfall over southern Hispaniola as a minimal tropical storm earlier today, but the National Hurricane Center (NHC) kept Grace a tropical depression since the cyclone has been passing very close to Hispaniola. Grace slowed down yesterday evening, allowing it to develop a rather weak and small, but closed, low-level circulation. For much of the past few days, there had been uncertainty with how Grace would interact with Hispaniola, and it appears very likely that the cyclone will survive now that it will only graze the southern coast of the island. Proximity to southern Hispaniola is likely to limit Grace from intensifying for the next 12 hours or so. However, after that time, Grace will move west-northwestward into the warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea, where the environment looks relatively favorable for intensification. Based on the 18z Monday GFS-based SHIPS guidance, Grace is expected to traverse over warm sea surface temperatures near 30°C (86°F), with deep-layer vertical shear less than 15 knots. Potentially working against intensification in the northwestern Caribbean is a potential increase in mid-level shear as well as an only marginally moist 700-500 mb environment, with relative humidity values near 55 percent. There is a chance that Grace could become a hurricane prior to approaching the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula early Thursday morning. If Grace moves south of forecast, interaction with the Yucatan Peninsula is likely to weaken the cyclone on Thursday, which could disrupt any inner core that attempts to develop before then. After that, Grace is likely to emerge into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, where the environment is likely to become even more favorable for intensification. The NHC forecast now projects that Grace will become a minimal hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, but it is possible Grace could be quite a bit stronger than that, especially if the cyclone is able to avoid significant land interaction with the Yucatan Peninsula. Grace’s threat to the United States appears to be decreasing, and it now appears the main threat area with Grace is to the Cayman Islands, Yucatan Peninsula and mainland Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning is currently in effect for the Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Las Tunas, and Camaguey, as well as the Cayman Islands. A Tropical Storm Watch is currently in effect for the entire western coast of Haiti, as well as the central coast of Cuba.

A previously non-tropical area of low pressure developed into Tropical Depression Eight north of Bermuda late Sunday night, and has now developed into Tropical Storm Henri (pronounced AHN-REE not HEN-REE). As of 5;00 p.m. EDT Monday, Tropical Storm Henri was centered near 31.0°N 62.9°W, and was moving south-southwestward at about 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 35 knots (40 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1010 mb. Henri is the 8th named storm of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season, and the third-earliest 8th Atlantic named storm of the satellite era, behind only Hanna (2020) and Harvey (2005). Henri is likely to be in a relatively favorable environment for intensification for the next 36-48 hours, with generally light shear and sea surface temperatures of warmer than 29°C (84.2°F). On Wednesday, however, the GFS-based SHIPS guidance suggests the wind shear is likely to increase to greater than 25 knots (30 mph) out of the north to north-northeast. This will likely prevent intensification and probably even weaken Henri. The shear could decrease again past day 5, but it remains uncertain how much of Henri will be left by that time. The HWRF model remains an extreme outlier, developing Henri into a major hurricane. However, the remaining models are much weaker, with the global models suggesting the system will be very weak in a few days and could even dissipate. Henri should turn more to the west tomorrow, and then turn again to the northeast later this week with the center remaining well away from Bermuda. The stronger Henri gets, the more west it will likely get before it starts to turn to the northeast.