Tropical Storm Nicholas, the 14th named storm of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season, is expected to make landfall in southeastern Texas early Tuesday morning. In addition to Nicholas, another tropical wave (Invest 95L) has recently emerged off the coast of western Africa, and could become a tropical depression later this week.

As of 4:00 p.m. CDT (5:00 p.m. EDT), Tropical Storm Nicholas was centered near 27.4°N 96.4°W, and was moving north-northeastward at about 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 55 knots (65 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1000 mb. Nicholas has remained a broad system since its formation, with multiple low-level swirls and frequent center reformations, which has prevented rapid intensification from occurring. Since Nicholas is over warm water and wind shear is light to moderate, there is a slight chance Nicholas could acquire hurricane-force winds before moving inland. The main threat from Nicholas will be storm surge and heavily rainfall. A Storm Surge Warning is currently in effect from Port Aransas. Texas to Sabine Pass, as well as Galveston Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay. A Hurricane Watch is currently in effect from Port Aransas to St. Luis Pass, Texas. A Tropical Storm Warning is currently in effect from Baffine Bay to Sabine Pass, and a Storm Surge Watch is currently in effect from Sabine Pass to Rutherford Beach, Louisiana. Nicholas is likely to produce rainfall totals of 6-12 inches, with isolated totals of greater than 15 inches over coastal Texas.

A tropical wave has recently entered the eastern tropical Atlantic basin, Invest 95L, and has a high chance to become a tropical depression over the next five days. The National Hurricane Center currently gives 95L a 30 percent chance of development within 48 hours, and an 80 percent chance of development within five days. Although 95L is likely to become a tropical cyclone, it has a very complicated future. Both the 12z GFS and ECMWF models developed 95L into a tropical cyclone by Friday, but showed the cyclone likely weakening in a week or so due to strong shear from a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT). The 18z run of the GFS-based SHIPS model predicted that 95L would be under moderate shear of around 20-25 knots for the next 36 hours or so, which will likely slow development during that time. After that time, 95L is expected to be in a relatively favorable environment for 3-4 days, with wind shear less than 15 knots, and sea surface temperatures warmer than 27°C (80.6°F). 95L is likely to gradually develop during this time, and if it develops quickly, it’s quite possible it could become a hurricane. However, the shear is likely to increase in about 5-6 days, which could weaken or even dissipate 95L after that time. If 95L is able to survive the shear, it could potentially pose a long-range threat to the Lesser Antilles as well as the Bahamas and even the United States East Coast. 95L is a very complex forecast, and we should know more about its future over the coming days.