The official start of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season is just over two months away, and the past seven seasons have had at least one named storm prior to June. As the season draws closer, there is increasing confidence that the Atlantic could be headed for its seventh consecutive above-average hurricane season. El Niño appears very unlikely to develop, and the Atlantic remains in an active era of hurricane activity that began in 1995.

Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature Pattern

The current Atlantic sea surface temperature profile resembles the negative phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, with slightly below-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic, above-average sea surface temperatures in the western subtropical Atlantic and below-average sea surface temperatures over the far north Atlantic. This sea surface temperature anomaly pattern if it persists could damper Atlantic tropical cyclone activity a bit, but since El Niño development appears very unlikely at this time, it is possible the Atlantic could even have above-average tropical cyclone activity if this look persists. However, this has been a recurring pattern in recent years during late winter and early spring, and could be temporary. The strong West African Monsoon (WAM) will also likely lead to some anomalous warming of the eastern tropical Atlantic during the summer months. At this point, it is too soon to assume it will persist into the hurricane season and have any significant suppressing effect. Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies in March do not correlate as strongly with Atlantic hurricane activity as they do during May-August. The Atlantic has been in an active phase of tropical cyclone activity since 1995 associated with the warm phase of the AMO, and as of right now, I expect that to continue for the 2022 season.

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

A persistent La Niña event continues over the equatorial Pacific, though there has been some recent warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific (more on this later). The latest weekly Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly value was -1.0C, indicating that La Niña conditions persist at a time of year when ENSO usually progresses towards neutral. Persistent easterly wind anomalies have continued over the central equatorial Pacific, limiting the development of downwelling Kelvin Waves and keeping the La Niña event going. The Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) has been negative for 21 straight trimonthly periods, and that streak appears unlikely to end any time soon. There is already moderate confidence that El Niño will not develop before the peak of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, which is somewhat unusual for this time of year. The latest CPC/IRI ENSO forecast estimates equal 45% chance of ENSO-neutral and La Niña conditions for August-September-October 2022, with only a 10% chance of El Nino. El Niño events typically increase the vertical wind shear in the tropical Atlantic, while La Niña events typically result in decreased wind shear over the tropical Atlantic. The climate model guidance is also in good agreement that El Niño will not develop over the coming months. Therefore, it appears unlikely that ENSO will have a suppressing effect for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, and that is a major factor in our above-average hurricane forecast.

West African Monsoon (WAM)

A major reason why the Atlantic has been able to consistently produce above-average hurricane activity is the persistently strong West African Monsoon (WAM). This enhanced WAM has led to anomalous warming in the deep tropical Atlantic during the summer, enhanced rainfall in the Sahel region of Africa and stronger than usual tropical waves. It appears likely the strong WAM will continue this year, as precipitable water is already above normal in the Sahel region. The latest NMME model guidance also shows enhanced chances of above-normal precipitation in western Africa and the tropical Atlantic. This is overall be an enhancing factor in Atlantic tropical cyclone activity, though it will likely lead to some large, dry tropical waves that struggle in July and August.

Cyclonic Fury’s March 2022 Atlantic hurricane season forecast:

• 15-20 named storms (1991-2020 average: 14.4)
• 6-9 hurricanes (1991-2020 average: 7.2)
• 3-5 major (category 3+) hurricanes (1991-2020 average: 3.2)
• Accumulated Cyclone Energy 130 +/- 40 (1991-2020 average: 122.1/1951-2020 average: 96.7)

Cyclonic Fury also gives the following probabilities of activity. Right now, our forecast leans above-average due to the ongoing active Atlantic hurricane era as well as very low chances of El Niño development. We are hesitant to outright predict a hyperactive season yet, due to the historical decreased activity in third-year La Niña events, as well as uncertainty in how warm the tropical Atlantic will be during the peak of the season.

• Hyperactive season: 20% (Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 160 or greater) This remains a possibility if the tropical Atlantic warms significantly over the next few months relative to average, and cool ENSO conditions continue.
• Above normal season: 45% (Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 126-159) This scenario is likely if ENSO remains cooler than normal, but the tropical Atlantic is not as anomalously warm as hyperactive seasons typically are. This is currently the most likely scenario as of now.
• Near normal season: 25% (Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 73-125) This remains a possibility if the tropical Atlantic remains somewhat cool relative to average, though I would expect activity to be on the upper end of the near-normal range should this occur.
• Below normal season: 10% (Accumulated Cyclone Energy of 73 or below) This appears like an unlikely scenario at this time, with El Niño development not expected and the Atlantic in an ongoing active phase. Regardless, we cannot rule it out just yet, as anomalously weak seasons occur during cool ENSO on rare occasions (such as 2007 or 2013).

At this extended range, it is near impossible to predict which areas, if any, will have hurricane or tropical storm threats in 2022. The next Cyclonic Fury forecast for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season will be released in late May.

Cyclonic Fury March forecast verification

This is the fifth straight year Cyclonic Fury has issued a pre-season Atlantic hurricane forecast in March, as we started issuing March forecasts in 2018. In 2018, in our March forecast, Cyclonic Fury predicted 11-16 named storms, 5-9 hurricanes, 2-4 major hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 125 units. This forecast verified quite well, as 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes formed, with an ACE index of 133. In 2019, our March forecast was much less accurate, as Cyclonic Fury predicted 8-13 named storms, 3-6 hurricanes, 1-3 major hurricanes and an ACE index of 80. Actual activity was significantly higher, as El Niño dissipated sooner than expected, with 18 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 132. In 2020, our March forecast correctly anticipated potential for an active season, as we predicted 13-18 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes, 2-5 major hurricanes with an ACE index of 140 units. However, our forecast was too low in every category since record-breaking activity occurred. In 2021, our March forecast once again correctly anticipated an above-average hurricane season, predicting 14-19 named storms (actual: 21), 6-9 hurricanes (actual: 7) and 2-4 major hurricanes (actual: 4), and an ACE index of 135 units (actual: 146). Our forecast was a bit too low in named storms and ACE, but overall, the forecast was fairly accurate.