Tropical Storm Agatha over the eastern Pacific intensified into a hurricane on Sunday morning, and has now rapidly intensified into a high-end Category 2 hurricane as it turns northeastward towards landfall in southern Mexico. Agatha is expected to make landfall tomorrow evening, likely as a major hurricane. Agatha is the first eastern Pacific hurricane to form in May since Andres in 2015.

As of 4:00 p.m. CDT (5:00 p.m. EDT), Hurricane Agatha was centered near 14.1°N 98.7°W, and was moving northeastward at about 1 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 95 knots (110 mph), with a minimum pressure of 964 mb. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been investigating Agatha this afternoon, and has provided valuable information about the hurricane’s intensity. Agatha’s inner core is tight and compact, which could allow additional rapid intensification. However, small inner cores are prone to unexpected weakening as well, so Agatha will need to be monitored for intensity fluctuations. Agatha will remain in a very favorable environment up to landfall, with sea surface temperatures warmer than 29°C (84.2°F) and vertical wind shear less than 10 knots. A Hurricane Warning is currently in effect from Salina Cruz to Lagunas de Chacahua, Mexico, which means that hurricane conditions are expected in the region within the next 36 hours. Preparations should be rushed to completion. Since Agatha’s inner core is rather small, wind damage is likely to be localized to areas closest to the eyewall.

Once Agatha makes landfall in the Mexican state of Oaxaca tomorrow evening, rapid weakening should occur. Agatha’s low-level circulation should dissipate on Tuesday night, though it will be absorbed into a larger gyre that could spawn the Atlantic’s first tropical cyclone late next week. A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop near the Yucatan Peninsula, but it is unclear where and if a low-level circulation will develop. In previous runs, the ECMWF model predicted a low pressure area to form in the Bay of Campeche, but recent runs have shifted eastward and now forecast a low to form over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea by late week instead. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) currently gives this system a 30 percent chance of development within five days. The first name on the Atlantic naming list is Alex.