The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins tomorrow. For the first time since 2014, it appears as if we will not see a named storm form prior to the official start of the season. Regardless, environmental conditions appear conducive for the seventh straight above-average Atlantic hurricane season, with a persistent La Nina in place and a continuation of an ongoing active era of Atlantic hurricane activity.

Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures

Currently, the overall sea surface temperature anomaly pattern appears favorable for another active Atlantic hurricane season. Sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Atlantic have been fluctuating, but have been slightly above average for the last month. Anomalous warmth is currently present over the subtropical western Atlantic and northeastern Atlantic, with a “blob” of below-normal sea surface temperatures in the north-central Atlantic. While this is not consistent with a classic positive Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) pattern, it does appear more favorable for the Atlantic basin than unfavorable. I would expect the Atlantic sea surface temperature pattern to have a slight enhancing effect on the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season.

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

La Niña conditions have continued to persist over the equatorial Pacific, with the latest weekly Niño 3.4 value of -0.9ºC. The weekly Niño 3.4 value has continuously remained in the La Niña range since late last September. The 90-day average of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is a remarkable +16.86, indicating that the atmosphere solidly resembles La Niña. However, subsurface sea surface temperature anomalies have actually been warming over the equatorial Pacific, and are approaching neutral. This is likely to be temporary, as La Niña-induced trade winds are likely to ramp up again during the Northern Hemisphere summer. Most climate models show little change in Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies over the coming months, and La Niña conditions should persist through the peak of the hurricane season. Based on the latest CPC/IRI ENSO forecast, there is an expected 58% chance of La Niña conditions for the August-September-October trimonthly period, a 38% chance of ENSO-Neutral, and only a 4% chance of El Niño. La Niña conditions usually decrease the vertical wind shear over the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea, so I think that ENSO will have a significant enhancing effect on the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season.

West African Monsoon (WAM)

Over the past several years, a stronger than normal West African Monsoon has enhanced TC activity over the tropical Atlantic, and has also contributed to a weakening of trade winds that has allowed anomalous warming of the tropical Atlantic during the northern hemisphere summer. It appears likely that will continue in 2022. During the past month, precipitable water has been well above normal over the Sahel region of Africa. In addition, the NMME forecast for July-August-September predicts that rainfall will be above normal over western Africa and the eastern tropical Atlantic. Therefore, we can predict that the West African Monsoon will once again be an enhancing factor for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season.

Cyclonic Fury’s 2022 Atlantic hurricane season forecast:

• 16-21 named storms (1991-2020 average: 14.4)
• 7-11 hurricanes (1991-2020 average: 7.2)
• 3-6 major (Category 3+) hurricanes (1991-2020 average: 3.2)
• Accumulated Cyclone Energy 150 (+/- 40) (1991-2020 average: ~122)

Cyclonic Fury also gives the following probabilities of activity. Since NOAA has recently switched to using 50-year-averages for Accumulated Cyclone Energy, I will use 50-year averages for this metric as well, because of the recent high bias in the 1991-2020 period due to it being mostly in an ongoing active era.

• Hyperactive season: 30% (Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 160 or greater)
• Above normal season: 45% (Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 126-159)
• Near normal season: 15% (Does not fall into the Below Normal, Above Normal or Hyperactive criteria)
• Below normal season: 10% (Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 73 or less)

This is the sixth year Cyclonic Fury has issued a May Atlantic hurricane season forecast. Our first May Atlantic hurricane season forecast was released in 2017, predicting 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes (excluding Tropical Storm Arlene). This forecast fell well short of the actual activity, which was 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes. In May 2018, Cyclonic Fury began to use ranges as I do now, predicting 10-14 named storms, 4-7 hurricanes, 2-3 major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 90 +/- 25 units. This forecast, just like expert groups in 2018, fell well short of the actual activity of 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes and an ACE index of 130 units. In May 2019, Cyclonic Fury predicted 11-15 named storms, 5-8 hurricanes, and 1-3 major hurricanes, with an ACE index of 105 +/- 40 units. Atlantic hurricane activity verified higher than my forecast, as 18 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes formed, with an ACE index of 130 units. However, I did correctly suggest that El Niño persisting was not a guarantee, while NOAA expected it to persist in May 2019. In May 2020, I correctly predicted an above-average to hyperactive season, predicting 15-19 named storms, 7-10 hurricanes and 3-5 major hurricanes. Once again, Atlantic hurricane activity verified higher than my forecast, with 30 named storms forming, 14 hurricanes and 7 major hurricanes. In May 2021, my May forecast verified very well, as I predicted 15-20 named storms (actual: 21), 7-10 hurricanes (actual: 7), 3-5 major hurricanes (actual: 4), and an ACE index of 140 units (actual: 145.7).