The peak of the hurricane season is near, and the Atlantic and eastern Pacific both have hurricanes active (the Atlantic has two). In the Atlantic, Hurricane Danielle is likely to become extratropical tomorrow, while Hurricane Earl is expected to intensify into the first major hurricane of the season east of Bermuda. In the eastern Pacific, Hurricane Kay is likely to brush the western coast of the Baja California Peninsula, and could bring tropical storm conditions as far north as the United States border.

After a very unusual August with no tropical cyclone formations pending reanalysis in the Atlantic basin (the first occurrence of such since 1997), Danielle strengthened into the first hurricane of the season last Friday and has persisted despite its unusually high latitude. Danielle peaked as a Category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph, but has since weakened. As of 9:00 p.m. GMT (5:00 p.m. EDT) Wednesday, Hurricane Danielle was centered near 44.9°N 34.9°W, and was moving northeastward at 16 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 70 knots (80 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 972 mb. Danielle is expected to begin to undergo extratropical transition soon, which is likely to complete by tomorrow evening. Danielle’s remnants are expected to make a cyclonic loop later this week, before turning to the southeast and possibly reaching the Iberian Peninsula early next week. By that time, Danielle is likely to be a weak non-tropical low.

Hurricane Earl strengthened into the second hurricane of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season on Tuesday evening, and has continued to slowly strengthen since. As of 5:00 p.m. EDT Wednesday, Hurricane Earl was centered near 26.5°N 65.5°W, and was moving northward at about 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 75 knots (85 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 974 mb. By tomorrow morning, vertical wind shear is expected to decrease to less than 10 knots while Earl remains over sea surface temperatures greater than 29°C (84.2°F). As a result, steady or perhaps even rapid intensification is likely to occur, and Earl is expected to become the first major hurricane of the season on Friday. Earl will also receive a boost from a favorable trough interaction, and it is quite possible that Earl could reach Category 4 strength. Earl is expected to pass east of Bermuda very early Friday morning, and a Hurricane Watch has been issued for the small island. Earl should then quickly lose tropical characteristics on Saturday, and is likely to become a strong post-tropical cyclone by Saturday afternoon.

Hurricane Kay, the eighth hurricane of the 2022 Pacific hurricane season, is expected to pass very close or perhaps even make landfall in the central Baja California Peninsula of Mexico. As of 3:00 p.m. MDT (5:00 p.m. EDT), Hurricane Kay was centered near 22.0°N 113.0°W, and was moving north-northwestward at about 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 85 knots (100 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 971 mb. Reconnaissance aircraft data suggests this intensity estimate is likely generous. Regardless, Kay has a large tropical storm force wind field, and watches and warnings are currently in effect. Although wind shear is expected to remain low, Kay should cross the 26°C (78.8°F) isotherm tomorrow morning, and gradually spin down thereafter. Land interaction should also contribute to weakening as Kay moves north-northwestward through Friday. By late Friday and Saturday, Kay, likely to be weak by that time, is expected to turn to the northwest and then eventually to the south. As a result, an extremely rare tropical cyclone landfall in Southern California does not appear to be a plausible scenario at this time.

A Hurricane Warning is currently in effect from North of Punta Abreojos to San Jose De Las Palomas. A Hurricane Watch is currently in effect from Puerto Cortes to Punta Abreojos. A Tropical Storm Warning is currently in effect for the following areas: Punta Abreojos southward to Cabo San Lucas, San Jose De Las Palomas to Cabo San Quintin, Cabo San Lucas northward along the entire east of Baja and then southward to Guaymas in mainland Mexico. A Tropical Storm Watch is currently in effect from Cabo San Quintin to U.S./Mexico border.